Evaluating streamflow and temperature effects on Bull Trout migration and survival with linear spatial capture–recapture models

ObjectiveIn the U.S. Pacific Northwest, climate change is increasing air temperatures, decreasing warm season (April–September) streamflow, and increasing cool season (October–March) streamflow. Warmer water temperatures may alter conditions for migratory coldwater fishes like the Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus. Consequently, an understanding of Bull Trout migration and survival is critical for species conservation and restoration. In the Salmon River basin, Idaho, 1992 and 1993 transpired to be two of the most opposing extreme years among the past three decades for warm season water temperature and streamflow. These extremes provided a unique opportunity to retrospectively compare Bull Trout survival and migration under potential climate change scenarios.MethodsWe evaluated prespawning and postspawning migrations and survival of fluvial Bull Trout that were radio‐tagged and tracked from 1992 to 1994. We used a Cormack–Jolly–Seber linear spatial capture–recapture model to simultaneously model the migration and survival of radio‐tagged prespawn (n = 58) and postspawn (n = 23) Bull Trout among weeks and river reaches with streamflow, water temperature, and habitat covariates.ResultMost individual prespawning migrations were similar among tagged fish, whereas postspawn fish adopted multiple migration and overwintering strategies. Movements of prespawn Bull Trout were larger when (1) weekly average daily maximum streamflow increased and (2) weekly average daily maximum water temperature increased. The model estimated that at least 52% of spawners survived to spawning, and mean weekly prespawning apparent survival was higher in the low‐streamflow year (1992) than in the year with higher and more variable streamflow (1993). Survival of 1992–1994 fish during the 38‐week postspawning period was intermediate to that in the prespawning period. Detections of prespawn Bull Trout were generally higher at sites with more complex habitats, less large woody debris, and fewer undercut banks.ConclusionWe found that the prespawn life stage can represent a shorter time frame (14–18 weeks) with increased mortality compared to the longer postspawning period (38 weeks). Bull Trout apparent survival increased with lower streamflow variability, indicating that expected future changes in climate may adversely affect Bull Trout.