{"title":"由混合泊松过程驱动的广义克拉梅尔-伦德伯格模型的溢价函数和毁损概率的一些数学特性","authors":"Masashi Tomita, Koichiro Takaoka, Motokazu Ishizaka","doi":"10.1007/s13160-024-00656-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper derives several mathematical properties of the generalized Cramér–Lundberg model proposed by Tomita et al. (J. Appl. Probab. <b>59</b>(3):849-859, 2022). The model extends the Bayesian-estimator model of Dubey. (Versicherungsmathematiker. <b>2</b>:130-141, 1977) to the case of multiple insurance policies. We study the instantaneous premium function and the dependence structure of the ruin probability on the intensity of the driving mixed Poisson process. In particular, we show that the conditional ruin probability is monotonic with respect to the intensity value under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that, without these assumptions, the monotonicity does not generally hold. Our study contributes to the risk management of insurance companies in the sense that it reveals how the difference between the assumed and true distribution of the risk factor affects the ruin probability.</p>","PeriodicalId":50264,"journal":{"name":"Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Some mathematical properties of the premium function and ruin probability of a generalized Cramér–Lundberg model driven by mixed poisson processes\",\"authors\":\"Masashi Tomita, Koichiro Takaoka, Motokazu Ishizaka\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s13160-024-00656-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This paper derives several mathematical properties of the generalized Cramér–Lundberg model proposed by Tomita et al. (J. Appl. Probab. <b>59</b>(3):849-859, 2022). The model extends the Bayesian-estimator model of Dubey. (Versicherungsmathematiker. <b>2</b>:130-141, 1977) to the case of multiple insurance policies. We study the instantaneous premium function and the dependence structure of the ruin probability on the intensity of the driving mixed Poisson process. In particular, we show that the conditional ruin probability is monotonic with respect to the intensity value under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that, without these assumptions, the monotonicity does not generally hold. Our study contributes to the risk management of insurance companies in the sense that it reveals how the difference between the assumed and true distribution of the risk factor affects the ruin probability.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50264,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics\",\"volume\":\"46 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13160-024-00656-4\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13160-024-00656-4","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED","Score":null,"Total":0}
Some mathematical properties of the premium function and ruin probability of a generalized Cramér–Lundberg model driven by mixed poisson processes
This paper derives several mathematical properties of the generalized Cramér–Lundberg model proposed by Tomita et al. (J. Appl. Probab. 59(3):849-859, 2022). The model extends the Bayesian-estimator model of Dubey. (Versicherungsmathematiker. 2:130-141, 1977) to the case of multiple insurance policies. We study the instantaneous premium function and the dependence structure of the ruin probability on the intensity of the driving mixed Poisson process. In particular, we show that the conditional ruin probability is monotonic with respect to the intensity value under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that, without these assumptions, the monotonicity does not generally hold. Our study contributes to the risk management of insurance companies in the sense that it reveals how the difference between the assumed and true distribution of the risk factor affects the ruin probability.
期刊介绍:
Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (JJIAM) is intended to provide an international forum for the expression of new ideas, as well as a site for the presentation of original research in various fields of the mathematical sciences. Consequently the most welcome types of articles are those which provide new insights into and methods for mathematical structures of various phenomena in the natural, social and industrial sciences, those which link real-world phenomena and mathematics through modeling and analysis, and those which impact the development of the mathematical sciences. The scope of the journal covers applied mathematical analysis, computational techniques and industrial mathematics.