{"title":"基于场地类别的地震震级预测公式,用于地震预警","authors":"A. Mugesh, Aniket Desai, Ravi S. Jakka, Kamal","doi":"10.1007/s10950-024-10213-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have advanced significantly, accurately determining earthquake parameters from the initial 3 s of P-wave motion remains challenging. Factors such as the complexity of the earthquake source and variability of ground motion due to site conditions contribute to this difficulty. This article aims to investigate how local site conditions impact the correlation between EEW parameters and earthquake magnitude, to better understand the influence of site conditions on the accuracy of EEW systems. Specifically, the study examines the effect of variation site conditions on commonly used EEW parameters, such as average characteristic period (<i>τ</i><sub><i>c</i></sub>) and peak displacement amplitude (<i>P</i><sub><i>d</i></sub>), for different site classes. A dataset of 432 strong-motion records with magnitude ranging from 5 to 7.3 was analyzed and site characterization information from the Kiban Kyoshin Network (KiK-net) in Japan was used. A linear relationship between EEW parameters (<i>τ</i><sub><i>c</i></sub>, <i>P</i><sub><i>d</i></sub>) and magnitude for the combined dataset (all data), as well as separate datasets based on site classes C (very dense soil and soft rock) and D (stiff soil site), was developed, and then the statistical parameters, correlation coefficient value (<i>R</i>), and standard deviation error (SD) in the linear regression analysis were compared. The study finds that <i>τ</i><sub><i>c</i></sub> and <i>P</i><sub><i>d</i></sub> have a significant correlation with magnitude when separate correlations are developed for site classes C and D. Absolute residual error and percentage error analyses were carried out. It was found that magnitude prediction errors were reduced particularly for class D sites. Overall, the study suggests need for use of site class based magnitude prediction equations in earthquake early warning, especially for softer soil sites.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Site class based seismic magnitude prediction equations for earthquake early warning\",\"authors\":\"A. Mugesh, Aniket Desai, Ravi S. Jakka, Kamal\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10950-024-10213-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Although earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have advanced significantly, accurately determining earthquake parameters from the initial 3 s of P-wave motion remains challenging. Factors such as the complexity of the earthquake source and variability of ground motion due to site conditions contribute to this difficulty. This article aims to investigate how local site conditions impact the correlation between EEW parameters and earthquake magnitude, to better understand the influence of site conditions on the accuracy of EEW systems. Specifically, the study examines the effect of variation site conditions on commonly used EEW parameters, such as average characteristic period (<i>τ</i><sub><i>c</i></sub>) and peak displacement amplitude (<i>P</i><sub><i>d</i></sub>), for different site classes. A dataset of 432 strong-motion records with magnitude ranging from 5 to 7.3 was analyzed and site characterization information from the Kiban Kyoshin Network (KiK-net) in Japan was used. A linear relationship between EEW parameters (<i>τ</i><sub><i>c</i></sub>, <i>P</i><sub><i>d</i></sub>) and magnitude for the combined dataset (all data), as well as separate datasets based on site classes C (very dense soil and soft rock) and D (stiff soil site), was developed, and then the statistical parameters, correlation coefficient value (<i>R</i>), and standard deviation error (SD) in the linear regression analysis were compared. The study finds that <i>τ</i><sub><i>c</i></sub> and <i>P</i><sub><i>d</i></sub> have a significant correlation with magnitude when separate correlations are developed for site classes C and D. Absolute residual error and percentage error analyses were carried out. It was found that magnitude prediction errors were reduced particularly for class D sites. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
尽管地震预警(EEW)系统已经取得了长足的进步,但从最初 3 秒的 P 波运动中准确确定地震参数仍然具有挑战性。地震源的复杂性和现场条件导致的地面运动变化等因素都是造成这一困难的原因。本文旨在研究当地场地条件如何影响 EEW 参数与震级之间的相关性,从而更好地理解场地条件对 EEW 系统准确性的影响。具体而言,本研究探讨了不同场地类别的变化场地条件对常用 EEW 参数(如平均特征周期 (τc) 和峰值位移振幅 (Pd))的影响。分析了 432 个震级为 5 至 7.3 级的强震记录数据集,并使用了来自日本 Kiban Kyoshin 网络(KiK-net)的场地特征信息。针对合并数据集(所有数据)以及基于场地类别 C(非常致密的土壤和软岩)和 D(硬土场地)的单独数据集,建立了 EEW 参数(τc、Pd)与震级之间的线性关系,然后比较了线性回归分析中的统计参数、相关系数值 (R) 和标准偏差误差 (SD)。研究发现,当对 C 类和 D 类场地分别建立相关关系时,τc 和 Pd 与震级具有显著的相关性。结果发现,尤其是 D 类站点的震级预测误差有所减小。总之,研究表明,在地震预警中需要使用基于场地等级的震级预测方程,特别是对于土质较软的场地。
Site class based seismic magnitude prediction equations for earthquake early warning
Although earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have advanced significantly, accurately determining earthquake parameters from the initial 3 s of P-wave motion remains challenging. Factors such as the complexity of the earthquake source and variability of ground motion due to site conditions contribute to this difficulty. This article aims to investigate how local site conditions impact the correlation between EEW parameters and earthquake magnitude, to better understand the influence of site conditions on the accuracy of EEW systems. Specifically, the study examines the effect of variation site conditions on commonly used EEW parameters, such as average characteristic period (τc) and peak displacement amplitude (Pd), for different site classes. A dataset of 432 strong-motion records with magnitude ranging from 5 to 7.3 was analyzed and site characterization information from the Kiban Kyoshin Network (KiK-net) in Japan was used. A linear relationship between EEW parameters (τc, Pd) and magnitude for the combined dataset (all data), as well as separate datasets based on site classes C (very dense soil and soft rock) and D (stiff soil site), was developed, and then the statistical parameters, correlation coefficient value (R), and standard deviation error (SD) in the linear regression analysis were compared. The study finds that τc and Pd have a significant correlation with magnitude when separate correlations are developed for site classes C and D. Absolute residual error and percentage error analyses were carried out. It was found that magnitude prediction errors were reduced particularly for class D sites. Overall, the study suggests need for use of site class based magnitude prediction equations in earthquake early warning, especially for softer soil sites.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence.
Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.