Determination of future creep and seismic behaviors of dams using 3D analyses validated by long-term levelling measurements

This study aims to assess the future structural performance of the Kozlu-Ulutan clay core rockfill (CCR) dam, one of the most significant water structures in the Black Sea region of Turkey, by utilizing 35 years of levelling measurements and 3D finite-difference analyses. Settlement measurements were obtained from five different points on the dam surface every 6 months. Subsequently, a three-dimensional (3D) model of the dam was created using the finite-difference method. Time-dependent creep analyses and seismic analyses were conducted sequentially, employing the Burger-Creep and Mohr–Coulomb material models, respectively. Non-reflecting boundary conditions were defined for the boundaries of the dam model. The 3D numerical analysis results were found to be highly compatible with the 35 years of levelling measurements. Additionally, the future seepage and settlement behaviors of the dam over a 100-year period (2023–2123) were analyzed, considering special time functions. Current and future seismic analyses were performed, taking into account the settlement results of the dam in 2023 and 2123. For seismic analyses, data from ten various earthquakes that occurred in Kahramanmaraş, Hatay, Malatya, and Gaziantep in Turkey in 2023 were utilized. The seismic analysis results provided significant information about the future seismic behavior of the Kozlu-Ulutan Dam, revealing notable differences between the current and future earthquake behaviors of the dam. Moreover, it was concluded that the clay core is the most crucial section concerning the current and future seismic behaviors of CCR dams. The study results emphasized the importance of continuous monitoring and periodic seismic evaluations for the safe operation of CCR dams.