Fracture Risk Assessment Tool-Based Screening for Osteoporosis in Older Adults in Resource-Limited Settings

Purpose: Osteoporosis is a pressing public health concern among older adults, contributing to substantial mortality and morbidity rates. Low- to middle-income countries (LMICs) often grapple with limited access to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), the gold standard for early osteoporosis detection. This study aims to assess the performance of the FRAX® score as a population-wide screening tool for predicting osteoporosis risk, rather than fracture, in individuals aged 50 and above within an LMIC context.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study (n=864) assessed the performance of the FRAX® score for predicting osteoporosis risk using comparative c-statistics from Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, with p-values <0.05 indicating statistically significant.

Results: The 10-year FRAX® probability for hip fracture, calculated without bone mass density (BMD), exhibited significantly superior performance compared to the 10-year FRAX® probability for major fracture in predicting osteoporosis risk (AUROC: 0.71 versus 0.67, p<0.001). Within 2 to 10 years of follow-up, the 10-year FRAX® probability for hip fracture showed both greater predictive performance and net benefit in the decision curve compared to the FRAX® 10-year probability for major fracture. A newly established cutoff of 1.9 % yielded a negative predictive value of 92.9 % (95 %CI: 90.4-94.8 %) for the 10-year FRAX® probability for hip fracture.

Conclusion: The 10-year FRAX® probability for hip fracture estimated without BMD emerges as an effective 10-year screening tool for identifying osteoporosis risk in aged 50 and older, especially when confronted with limited access to DXA scans in LMICs.

Mini abstract: The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool score performance as an osteoporosis screening tool was assessed in areas with limited dual-energy X-ray access. The hip fracture probability showed better performance than major fracture probability within 2 to 10 years. The tool emerges as effective for screening osteoporosis risk in individuals over 50.