{"title":"热风险和生产评估中的不确定性和认识不确定性的影响:应用于乙酰丙酸和乙酰丙酸丁酯的氢化反应","authors":"Lujie Shi , Younes Aoues , Sébastien Leveneur","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105317","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The hydrogenation of levulinates, derivatives from cellulose hydrolysis, leads to the platform molecule γ-valerolactone (GVL). While prior investigations indicate the propensity for thermal runaways in this reaction, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been conspicuously absent in the existing literature. This study endeavors to scrutinize the influence of input parameters on both thermal risks and the production rate during GVL synthesis. Distinguished by its dual focus on sensitivity analyses, this manuscript also contrasts the implications of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on thermal risk and production metrics. Aleatory uncertainties arise from the inherent variability of initial conditions, while epistemic uncertainties emanate from incomplete knowledge of the kinetic model. Employing Sobol global sensitivity analysis on the kinetic model, we delineate the hierarchical importance of various parameters. This analysis incorporates a quantification of uncertainty, and algorithmic approaches are proffered. The findings reveal that the initial temperature, the initial mass of the Ru/C catalyst, and hydrogen pressure are pivotal factors that are directly proportional to thermal risk and production efficiency. The implications of uncertainty on these variables are also discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423024000755/pdfft?md5=bc9118c66eefacb82cd746d131f868bb&pid=1-s2.0-S0950423024000755-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impact of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on thermal risk and production assessment: Application to the hydrogenation of levulinic acid and butyl levulinate\",\"authors\":\"Lujie Shi , Younes Aoues , Sébastien Leveneur\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105317\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The hydrogenation of levulinates, derivatives from cellulose hydrolysis, leads to the platform molecule γ-valerolactone (GVL). While prior investigations indicate the propensity for thermal runaways in this reaction, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been conspicuously absent in the existing literature. This study endeavors to scrutinize the influence of input parameters on both thermal risks and the production rate during GVL synthesis. Distinguished by its dual focus on sensitivity analyses, this manuscript also contrasts the implications of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on thermal risk and production metrics. Aleatory uncertainties arise from the inherent variability of initial conditions, while epistemic uncertainties emanate from incomplete knowledge of the kinetic model. Employing Sobol global sensitivity analysis on the kinetic model, we delineate the hierarchical importance of various parameters. This analysis incorporates a quantification of uncertainty, and algorithmic approaches are proffered. The findings reveal that the initial temperature, the initial mass of the Ru/C catalyst, and hydrogen pressure are pivotal factors that are directly proportional to thermal risk and production efficiency. The implications of uncertainty on these variables are also discussed.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16291,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423024000755/pdfft?md5=bc9118c66eefacb82cd746d131f868bb&pid=1-s2.0-S0950423024000755-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423024000755\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423024000755","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Impact of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on thermal risk and production assessment: Application to the hydrogenation of levulinic acid and butyl levulinate
The hydrogenation of levulinates, derivatives from cellulose hydrolysis, leads to the platform molecule γ-valerolactone (GVL). While prior investigations indicate the propensity for thermal runaways in this reaction, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been conspicuously absent in the existing literature. This study endeavors to scrutinize the influence of input parameters on both thermal risks and the production rate during GVL synthesis. Distinguished by its dual focus on sensitivity analyses, this manuscript also contrasts the implications of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on thermal risk and production metrics. Aleatory uncertainties arise from the inherent variability of initial conditions, while epistemic uncertainties emanate from incomplete knowledge of the kinetic model. Employing Sobol global sensitivity analysis on the kinetic model, we delineate the hierarchical importance of various parameters. This analysis incorporates a quantification of uncertainty, and algorithmic approaches are proffered. The findings reveal that the initial temperature, the initial mass of the Ru/C catalyst, and hydrogen pressure are pivotal factors that are directly proportional to thermal risk and production efficiency. The implications of uncertainty on these variables are also discussed.
期刊介绍:
The broad scope of the journal is process safety. Process safety is defined as the prevention and mitigation of process-related injuries and damage arising from process incidents involving fire, explosion and toxic release. Such undesired events occur in the process industries during the use, storage, manufacture, handling, and transportation of highly hazardous chemicals.