我们和他们外国威胁与国内两极分化

IF 2.2 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI:10.1177/00220027241246539
Joshua A. Schwartz, Dominic Tierney
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引用次数: 0

摘要

外国威胁能否减少国内两极分化?对美国来说,这是一个重要的问题,因为美国国内分裂严重,而中国作为一个潜在的外部危险正在崛起。我们提出了一个新颖的理论论点,即外部危险何时会使美国人团结起来,其基础是外部危险的鲜明性与两党精英对威胁的共识之间的联系。我们通过一系列预先登记的调查实验来验证我们的理论。我们发现,孤立地看生动的外来威胁并不能减少国内的两极分化,因此,仅仅来自中国的危险可能不足以促进国内的团结。然而,生动的外国威胁与政策制定者对威胁的一致看法相结合,确实能显著减少国内两极分化。这种两极分化的减少是有代价的:公众更愿意违反对华使用武力的准则。总之,我们的研究证实,在某些情况下,外国危险可以减少国内两极分化,并证明精英对外国威胁的反应在形成更广泛的国内效应方面非常重要。
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Us and Them: Foreign Threat and Domestic Polarization
Can foreign threats reduce domestic polarization, and if so, under what conditions? This is an important question for the United States given the severity of internal division and the emergence of China as a potentially unifying external peril. We offer a novel theoretical argument about when external danger will rally Americans based on the nexus between the vividness of foreign danger and bipartisan elite agreement about the threat. We test our theory through a series of pre-registered survey experiments. We find that vivid foreign threats, in isolation, do not reduce domestic polarization and therefore the danger from China alone may not be sufficient to spur domestic unity. However, vivid foreign threats in combination with policymaker agreement about the threat does significantly reduce domestic polarization. This reduction in polarization comes at a cost: increased public willingness to violate use of force norms against China. Overall, our study establishes that foreign peril can reduce domestic polarization under certain circumstances, and demonstrates that elite reactions to foreign threats are highly important in shaping wider domestic effects.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
9.70%
发文量
101
期刊介绍: The Journal of Conflict Resolution is an interdisciplinary journal of social scientific theory and research on human conflict. It focuses especially on international conflict, but its pages are open to a variety of contributions about intergroup conflict, as well as between nations, that may help in understanding problems of war and peace. Reports about innovative applications, as well as basic research, are welcomed, especially when the results are of interest to scholars in several disciplines.
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