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Major Power Rivalry and Wedge Strategy of Concessions 大国竞争与楔子妥协战略
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261417327
Hankyeul Yang
Military alliances are an important feature of major power competition. One way for a major power to increase its relative power is to drive a wedge in a rival’s alliance. Why and when does a major power do so? I propose a theory of strategic opportunity, which holds that a major power seeks to drive a wedge in the rival’s alliance by offering economic aid to a rival’s protégé when that country experiences a rapid deterioration in its relations with its patron. I test my theory on major power rivalry dyads and find empirical support for my argument on a set of directed dyad-year observations between 1960 and 2010. The findings contribute to our understanding of alliance politics and strategic considerations behind using economic carrots in major power rivalry.
军事联盟是大国竞争的重要特征。一个大国增加其相对实力的方法之一是在对手的联盟中挑拨离间。一个大国为什么要这么做,什么时候这么做?我提出了一种战略机会理论,认为当一个对手与其赞助人的关系迅速恶化时,一个大国试图通过向对手的前任提供经济援助来离间对手的联盟。我对我的理论进行了关于大国竞争二极体的测试,并在1960年至2010年间的一组定向二极体年观察中为我的论点找到了实证支持。这些发现有助于我们理解在大国竞争中使用经济胡萝卜背后的联盟政治和战略考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Shadow Wars in the Shadow of the Bomb: The Link Between Nuclear Weapons and Indirect Conflict 核弹阴影下的影子战争:核武器与间接冲突之间的联系
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261421160
Kyle Atwell, David C. Logan
How do nuclear weapons affect interstate conflict? Empirical studies on this question have returned mixed results. We argue that these results are due to overlooking indirect conflicts, a distinct and prominent form of limited conflict. Expanding current datasets to account for both conflict intensity and directness provides new insights about interstate conflict. We investigate the relationship between nuclear weapons and conflict through a large-n analysis that includes a new indicator for indirect conflict. We find that state dyads which possess nuclear weapons are significantly more likely to engage in indirect conflict. The results suggest the importance of including measures of indirect conflict in future scholarship and the need for policymakers to prepare for increased instances of indirect conflict between major powers possessing nuclear weapons.
核武器如何影响国家间的冲突?对这个问题的实证研究得出了不同的结果。我们认为,这些结果是由于忽视了间接冲突,这是一种独特而突出的有限冲突形式。扩展当前的数据集以兼顾冲突的强度和直接性,为了解国家间冲突提供了新的见解。我们通过一个包含间接冲突新指标的大n分析来研究核武器与冲突之间的关系。我们发现,拥有核武器的国家集团更有可能参与间接冲突。结果表明,在未来的学术研究中纳入间接冲突措施的重要性,以及政策制定者需要为拥有核武器的大国之间日益增加的间接冲突做好准备。
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引用次数: 0
Attitudes Towards Extremist Organizations in the United States 美国对极端组织的态度
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261421124
Joshua Alley, Layla Picard, Philip B. K. Potter
How do Americans view militant right-wing extremist organizations? We address this question using identical survey instruments that combine endorsement experiments and direct questions fielded in 2020 and 2022. Our design builds on established methodologies used to study attitudes toward militant organizations abroad. We find that consumption of right-wing media is strongly associated with less negative views of militant right-wing groups. We also document that public opinion toward these organizations became less negative over time, though the magnitude of this shift varies across groups.
美国人如何看待激进的右翼极端组织?我们使用相同的调查工具来解决这个问题,这些工具结合了2020年和2022年的背书实验和直接问题。我们的设计建立在用于研究对国外激进组织态度的既定方法之上。我们发现,右翼媒体的消费与激进右翼团体较少的负面观点密切相关。我们还记录到,随着时间的推移,公众对这些组织的看法变得不那么消极了,尽管这种转变的幅度在不同的群体中有所不同。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty, Information, and Risk in International Technology Races 国际技术竞赛中的不确定性、信息和风险
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231214996
Nicholas Emery-Xu, Andrew Park, Robert Trager
A formal model reveals how the information environment affects international races to implement a powerful, dangerous new military technology, which may cause a “disaster” affecting all states. States implementing the technology face a tradeoff between the safety of the technology and performance in the race. States face unknown, private, and public information about capabilities. More decisive races, in which small performance leads produce larger probabilities of victory, are usually more dangerous. In addition, revealing information about rivals’ capabilities has two opposing effects on risk: states discover either that they are far apart in capability and compete less or that they are close in capability and drastically reduce safety to win. Therefore, the public information scenario is less risky than the private information scenario except under high decisiveness. Finally, regardless of information, the larger the eventual loser’s impact on safety relative to the eventual winner’s, the more dangerous is the race.
一个正式的模型揭示了信息环境如何影响国际竞赛,以实施一种强大的、危险的新军事技术,这可能会导致影响所有国家的“灾难”。实施这项技术的国家面临着技术安全性和比赛表现之间的权衡。国家面临着未知的、私有的和公开的能力信息。在更具决定性的比赛中,小的领先优势会产生更大的获胜可能性,这通常更危险。此外,披露竞争对手能力的信息对风险有两种相反的影响:国家发现它们要么在能力上差距很大,竞争较少,要么在能力上接近,从而大大降低了取胜的安全性。因此,除了在高决策情况下,公共信息场景的风险小于私有信息场景。最后,不管信息如何,最终输家对安全的影响相对于最终赢家越大,比赛就越危险。
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引用次数: 0
The Bombing of Hospitals and Rebel Responses in Civil War. Evidence from Syria 轰炸医院与内战中叛军的反应。来自叙利亚的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251407077
Regine Schwab, Werner Krause, Samer Massoud
Does targeting civilians suppress or intensify insurgent violence? Existing research presents contradictory findings, focusing primarily on direct civilian targeting. We examine how government attacks on civilian infrastructure – specifically medical facilities – affect rebel behavior. We argue that hospital bombings trigger rebel escalation through civilian pressure and reputation-seeking. Analyzing novel data on hospital attacks in northwestern Syria (2017-2020), we use matching methods combined with difference-in-differences estimation to assess effects on combat intensity. Distinguishing between rebel- and government-initiated fighting, we find that hospital attacks increase insurgent violence within one week. Interviews with medical workers, activists, and rebels confirm that hospital bombings intensify attacks through our hypothesized mechanisms. These findings demonstrate that infrastructure targeting backfires strategically, echoing broader evidence on punishment strategies’ limitations in counterinsurgency. Our results also highlight concerns about the erosion of legal norms protecting medical facilities and civilians in armed conflict.
针对平民是压制还是加剧了叛乱分子的暴力行为?现有的研究提出了相互矛盾的结论,主要集中在直接针对平民的问题上。我们研究政府对民用基础设施(特别是医疗设施)的攻击如何影响叛军的行为。我们认为,医院轰炸通过平民压力和寻求声誉引发叛乱升级。分析2017-2020年叙利亚西北部医院袭击的新数据,我们使用匹配方法结合差中差估计来评估对战斗强度的影响。区分叛乱分子和政府发起的战斗,我们发现医院袭击在一周内增加了叛乱分子的暴力行为。对医务工作者、活动家和叛军的采访证实,医院爆炸通过我们假设的机制加剧了袭击。这些发现表明,以基础设施为目标在战略上适得其反,这与有关惩罚策略在反叛乱中的局限性的更广泛证据相呼应。我们的研究结果还突出了对在武装冲突中保护医疗设施和平民的法律规范受到侵蚀的担忧。
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引用次数: 0
Military Insubordination and International Coercion 军事不服从与国际胁迫
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251410091
Md Muhibbur Rahman, Nazmus Sakib
Do acts of military insubordination affect foreign aggression? We argue that mutiny makes a state more vulnerable to international coercion. Mutinies help foreign adversaries differentiate weak targets from strong ones by “affecting” and “revealing” states’ war-fighting costs and resolve. They disrupt the military command structure, thereby increasing the costs of organizing a well-coordinated defense against foreign threats. They also make deterrence posturing less effective by signaling a weakened resolve that sets the stage for the mutiny. Using time-series-cross-sectional data from 1945 to 2014, we show that mutiny (a) increases the likelihood of the state being targeted in a militarized interstate dispute, and (b) decreases the likelihood of its resistance once the MID is initiated. The paper advances our understanding of how civil-military relations affect states’ external threat environment. It also underscores the dynamic role of private information in international conflict processes.
军事不服从的行为会影响外国侵略吗?我们认为,兵变使一个国家更容易受到国际胁迫。兵变通过“影响”和“揭示”国家的战争成本和决心,帮助外国对手区分弱目标和强目标。它们扰乱了军事指挥结构,从而增加了组织协调一致的防御外来威胁的成本。它们还表明决心被削弱,为兵变埋下了伏兵,从而降低了威慑姿态的效果。使用1945年至2014年的时间序列横断面数据,我们表明叛变(a)增加了国家在军事化国家间争端中成为目标的可能性,(b)一旦MID启动,其抵抗的可能性就会降低。本文促进了我们对军民关系如何影响国家外部威胁环境的理解。它还强调了私人信息在国际冲突进程中的动态作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Terrorism on Democratic Support in Africa 恐怖主义对非洲民主支持的影响
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251409402
Souleymane Yameogo, Anja Neundorf
How does chronic terrorism affect support for democracy in fragile states? While most research examines isolated attacks in stable democracies, little is known about persistent violence in insecure, weakly institutionalised contexts. This paper addresses that gap by analysing Africa, where terrorism is widespread and democratic transitions remain incomplete. Using Afrobarometer survey data matched with terrorism events, we employ an entropy balancing strategy within an unexpected-event-during-survey (UESD) design to estimate causal effects. We find that terrorism consistently undermines democratic support – especially in countries with stronger liberal institutions and lower development. Younger and older citizens are particularly susceptible to attitudinal shifts. These findings highlight how terrorism’s political impact hinges not just on exposure, but also on broader structural vulnerabilities shaped by institutions, development, and demography. The study advances theories of authoritarian reflex and threat perception, offering new insights into sustaining democracy amid chronic insecurity.
长期的恐怖主义如何影响脆弱国家对民主的支持?虽然大多数研究调查的是稳定民主国家的孤立袭击,但对不安全、体制薄弱的环境中持续发生的暴力事件知之甚少。本文通过分析非洲来解决这一差距,在非洲,恐怖主义很普遍,民主转型仍未完成。使用与恐怖事件相匹配的Afrobarometer调查数据,我们在调查期间的意外事件(usd)设计中采用熵平衡策略来估计因果效应。我们发现,恐怖主义不断破坏对民主的支持——尤其是在自由制度更强、发展程度较低的国家。年轻人和老年人尤其容易受到态度转变的影响。这些发现突出表明,恐怖主义的政治影响不仅取决于暴露程度,还取决于由制度、发展和人口构成的更广泛的结构性脆弱性。这项研究推进了威权反射和威胁感知的理论,为在长期不安全的情况下维持民主提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
How Peace Treaties Can Influence Countries’ Climate Policies 和平条约如何影响各国的气候政策
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251406634
Tobias Böhmelt
Peace agreements increasingly contain environmental provisions, yet we know little about the impact these clauses might have. This study is the first to systematically assess whether and how environmental terms in peace treaties can influence states’ climate policies. I argue that peace accords help establish the foundations for legalization and the rule of law in post-conflict societies, which facilitates that environmental terms lead to actual legislation. I analyze over 2,000 peace agreements and thousands of climate mitigation policies from 1990 to 2024, using multiple estimation strategies. The findings show that peace agreements’ environmental provisions are associated with the adoption of climate policies in post-conflict periods. This relationship holds even when exploring environmental outcomes, accounting for countries’ self-selection into environmental terms, or considering moderating factors like institutional capacity. The study contributes to the literature on peacebuilding and environmental politics, offering new insights into how peace agreements can shape post-conflict settings.
和平协定越来越多地包含环境条款,但我们对这些条款可能产生的影响知之甚少。这项研究首次系统地评估了和平条约中的环境条款是否以及如何影响各国的气候政策。我认为,和平协定有助于为冲突后社会的合法化和法治奠定基础,从而促进环境条件导致实际立法。我使用多种评估策略,分析了1990年至2024年期间的2000多项和平协议和数千项气候减缓政策。研究结果表明,和平协议的环境条款与冲突后时期气候政策的采用有关。这种关系甚至在探索环境结果、考虑国家在环境方面的自我选择或考虑制度能力等调节因素时也成立。这项研究对建设和平和环境政治的文献有贡献,为和平协议如何影响冲突后环境提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Historical Analogies and Public Support for Foreign Policy Action 外交政策行动的历史类比和公众支持
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251399905
Christopher Blair, Paul Lendway, Joshua A. Schwartz
Politicians frequently use historical analogies to justify their preferred foreign policies. However, despite their prevalence, it remains unclear whether, how, and why they shape public opinion. We conduct the most comprehensive experimental test to date of the impact of historical analogies on the U.S. public’s foreign policy preferences and find compelling evidence that analogical appeals increase mass confidence in leaders’ foreign policy decisionmaking. We also illustrate several of the key mechanisms underlying this dynamic and show that historical analogies are more effective at shaping public opinion than (arguably) less rational presidential justifications like “gut” or intuition. Finally, we demonstrate that analogical reasoning is no more effective at moving public opinion than other types of rational justifications leaders use, such as appeals to experts, and that these other communication strategies impact public opinion through similar mechanisms as analogies. This suggests analogies are just one of many potentially effective devices in leaders’ broader rhetorical toolkits. Our results reveal the logic and limitations of an important elite communication strategy in foreign policymaking, and contribute to the growing literature on foreign policy attitudes and political communication.
政客们经常用历史类比来为他们偏爱的外交政策辩护。然而,尽管它们很普遍,但它们是否、如何以及为什么会影响公众舆论仍不清楚。我们对历史类比对美国公众外交政策偏好的影响进行了迄今为止最全面的实验测试,并发现了令人信服的证据,证明类比的吸引力增加了公众对领导人外交政策决策的信心。我们还说明了这种动态背后的几个关键机制,并表明在塑造公众舆论方面,历史类比比(可以说)不那么理性的总统理由(如“直觉”或直觉)更有效。最后,我们证明类比推理并不比领导者使用的其他类型的理性辩护更有效,例如向专家求助,并且这些其他沟通策略通过与类比相似的机制影响公众舆论。这表明,类比只是领导人更广泛的修辞工具中众多潜在有效手段之一。我们的研究结果揭示了外交政策制定中重要的精英沟通策略的逻辑和局限性,并为外交政策态度和政治沟通方面的文献越来越多做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Group Enrolment and Conflict Behavior 群体注册与冲突行为
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251398483
Gerald Eisenkopf, Torben Kölpin
A large literature in psychology and economics suggests that enrolment into groups shapes conflict behavior, even if the groups lack a salient identity. Our experimental design systematically modifies group formation and prize sharing rules to explain behavioral differences between conflicts among individuals and intergroup feuds. Apart from rather high levels of conflict expenditure in all treatments, we find no specific evidence for outgroup hostility. Group formation induces conditional cooperation within the groups. The prize distribution rules have a strong aggregate impact. Proportional prize sharing in winning groups fosters expenditure while egalitarian prize-sharing – a staple of such experiments – induces the predicted free-rider effects. Overall, our results support inequality aversion rather than parochial altruism as an explanation for differences in expenditures between individual and group conflicts.
心理学和经济学方面的大量文献表明,加入群体会塑造冲突行为,即使这些群体缺乏显著的身份。我们的实验设计系统地修改了群体形成和奖励分享规则,以解释个人冲突和群体间不和之间的行为差异。除了在所有治疗中相当高水平的冲突支出外,我们没有发现群体外敌意的具体证据。群体形成诱导群体内部有条件的合作。奖金分配规则具有很强的综合影响。在获奖群体中按比例分享奖金会促进支出,而平等主义的奖金分享——这类实验的主要内容——会引发预期的搭便车效应。总的来说,我们的结果支持不平等厌恶而不是狭隘的利他主义作为个人和群体冲突之间支出差异的解释。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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