Wolverine density, survival, and population trends in the Canadian boreal forest

There is limited information available on wolverine (Gulo gulo) population density and trends in the boreal forest of North America. We estimated wolverine density using spatial capture-recapture methods across 2 boreal forest study areas in Red Lake, Ontario (26,568 km²) and Rainbow Lake, Alberta (19,084 km²), Canada. We also used radio-telemetry data to estimate annual survival of adult and sub-adult wolverines and evaluated population trends with a stage-based matrix model. We used an array of run poles and live traps to detect wolverines. In Red Lake over 3 winter field seasons (2019–2022), we detected 56 individual wolverines (17 females, 32 males, and 7 unknown sex), and in Rainbow Lake over 2 field seasons (2014–2016), we detected 48 individuals (19 females, 18 males, and 11 of unknown sex). Average densities in Red Lake and Rainbow Lake were 3.64 and 6.74 wolverines/1,000 km², respectively. Adults and sub-adults occurred at equal abundance. Spring snow cover, roads, and industrial developments were not associated with spatial patterns of wolverine density. Most deaths occurred near roads; wolverines were killed in fur traps set along roads, by wolves using roads to travel, and by vehicles. The largest source of death was from incidental (n = 6 in Red Lake) or licensed fur trapping (n = 8 in Rainbow Lake) and we report 8 injuries from fur trapping sets. Red Lake survival estimates for adults (0.87) and sub-adults (0.86) contributed to a stable population trend. Rainbow Lake survival estimates for adults (0.66) and sub-adults (0.50) contributed to a declining population trend based on a relatively low sample of radio-days. Red Lake and Rainbow Lake combined survival estimates for adults (0.77) and sub-adults (0.73) also contributed to a declining population trend. Our survival and population modeling suggests that human-caused mortality is a significant risk to these populations. Our results can be applied to wolverine status assessments and used as benchmarks for future monitoring. Wolverine population stability or growth might be achieved by reducing incidental trapping deaths or injury and hindering human access to wolverine habitats through decommissioning or limiting development of industrial roads or other anthropogenic linear features.