Neurocognitive markers during maximum alcohol use in late adolescence as predictors of change in later drinking behaviors

The influence of alcohol use on later neurocognitive functioning is well researched, yet few studies have investigated whether neurocognition post-drinking initiation in adolescence predicts changes in later alcohol use. The objective of this study was to investigate neurocognitive task performance during maximum alcohol use in late adolescence as predictors of drinking behaviors 3–7 years later. Analyses (n = 105) were conducted on a longitudinal data set involving adolescents (12–13 years old) who were followed for 16 years. Time 1 (T1) was defined as the individuals' maximum drinking year within the first 10 study years and Time 2 (T2) was the first available data entry 3–7 years after T1. Four hierarchical linear regression models predicting follow-up alcohol use were estimated: drinking days, average drinks per drinking day, peak drinks, and binge episodes. All models included inhibition/cognitive flexibility, visuospatial ability, verbal memory, working memory, and their interactions with sex, while covarying for age at T1, follow-up duration, and controlling for T1 drinking. Better visuospatial ability at T1 predicted decreases in later binge episodes at T2 (β = −0.19, p = 0.048, partial r² = 0.039). While better inhibition/cognitive flexibility at T1 predicted increases in follow-up drinks per drinking day at T2 (β = 0.18, p = 0.016, partial r² = 0.057). Findings suggest specific neurocognitive abilities during maximum drinking in late adolescence are useful as predictors of change in later drinking quantity per occasion and could potentially inform intervention research targeting this age group.