前瞻性警务与交通骚乱:以色列三个城市的准实验

B. Hasisi, David Weisburd, Yael Litmanovitz, Tomer Carmel, Shani Tshuva, Taina Trahtenberg
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摘要

本文介绍了对以色列一项改革("EMUN")的准实验评估,该改革试图在全国范围内将以问题为导向的警务工作制度化。本研究探讨了这一改革对处理交通骚乱和道路欺凌犯罪的影响。我们将三个选择使用改革所提供的工具和技术来处理交通违法行为的警察局(处理警察局)与五个根据多项标准(包括类似的交通违法行为趋势)使用专门设计的算法进行匹配的警察局(对比警察局)进行了比较。采用差分法将每个治疗站与两个对比站进行比较。在六次比较中的五次比较中,与对照站相比,治疗站目标区域内记录在案的交通干扰事件大幅显著减少。我们还发现,有证据表明,在两个治疗站中,犯罪控制的效益明显扩散。然而,有证据表明,在最大的治疗站中,缓冲区的地理位置明显偏移。我们将此归因于目标区域性质的不同,并讨论了相对的危害和益处。研究结果表明,将各种循证警务策略制度化不仅对传统犯罪(如财产犯罪和暴力犯罪),而且对不文明行为和影响生活质量的犯罪行为都大有裨益。
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Proactive policing and traffic disturbances: A quasi-experiment in three Israeli cities
This paper describes a quasi-experimental evaluation of a reform in Israel (‘EMUN’), which attempted to institutionalize problem-oriented policing on a national scale. The current study examines the effect of this reform on tackling traffic disturbance and road bullying offences. We compared three police stations that chose to deal with traffic offences using the tools and techniques provided through the reform (treatment stations) with five police stations that were matched - using a specially designed algorithm - on several criteria, including similar trends of traffic offences (comparison stations). Each treatment station was compared to two comparison stations using a difference-in-differences approach. In five out of six comparisons there were large and significant reductions in documented traffic disturbances in the targeted areas of the treatment stations compared to the control stations. We also found evidence of significant diffusions in crime control benefits in two of the treatment stations. However, there was evidence of significant geographical displacement to the buffer zone in the largest treatment stations. We attribute this to differences in the nature of the areas targeted and discuss the relative harms and benefits. The findings of the study show that institutionalizing a variety of evidence-based policing strategies has a promise not only for classic crimes (such as property and violence), but also for incivilities and quality-of-life offenses.
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