地毯下的观察从细微处看爱尔兰生产力的异常增长

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS Transnational Corporations Review Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI:10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200062
Javier Papa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在对爱尔兰这样一个开放的小型经济体的 "颗粒假说"(Gabaix,2011年)进行实证检验。"颗粒假说 "最初是针对美国提出的,认为企业层面的生产率冲击可以解释总生产率波动的很大一部分原因。此外,作者还尝试并验证了第二个假设,即与美国相比,爱尔兰经济规模小、多样化程度低,因此颗粒效应可能更强、更重要。爱尔兰的案例尤为重要,因为近年来爱尔兰的经济集中度不断提高,以至于2015年对少数几家选定企业的微观冲击导致了国内生产总值(+34%),尤其是劳动生产率(+23%)和全要素生产率(-12%)等总体变量的显著水平变化。利用爱尔兰中央统计局(CSO)和经合组织(OECD)的宏观数据与经济影响年度商业调查(ABSEI)的微观数据的独创组合,对爱尔兰 2000-2016 年期间的两个细粒度假设进行了检验。研究结果证实,爱尔兰 5 家最大企业(按增加值计算)的生产率冲击占总生产率增长的很大一部分(约三分之一),比美国经济的冲击大得多。这些实证结果揭示了爱尔兰生产率波动的根源、经济集中对复原力的影响以及旨在扩大爱尔兰生产型企业基础的多元化政策的重要性。
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Looking under the carpet: A granular approach to the unusual productivity growth in Ireland

This paper is aimed to empirically test for an open and small economy like Ireland the “granular hypothesis” (Gabaix, 2011), originally proved for the US, which posits that firm-level productivity shocks can explain a sizable portion of aggregate productivity fluctuations. Additionally, the author tries and tests a second hypotheses suggesting the, given the small size, less diversification of the Irish economy, compared to that of the US, the granular effect is likely to be stronger and more important. The Irish case is particularly relevant as Ireland has been experiencing increasing economic concentration in recent years, to the point that micro shocks to a few selected firms in 2015 led to significant level shifts in aggregate variables like GDP (+34 per cent) and, particularly, labour productivity (+23 per cent) and total factor productivity (−12 per cent). Making use of an original combination of macro data from the Ireland's Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the OECD with micro data from the Annual Business Survey of Economic Impact (ABSEI), both granular hypotheses are tested in Ireland for the period 2000–2016.

Research findings confirm that productivity shocks to the 5 largest firms (in terms of value added) in Ireland account for a large fraction (about one third) of aggregate productivity growth, which is much larger than that found of the US economy. These empirical results shed light on the origins of Irish productivity fluctuations, the consequences of economic concentration on resilience and the importance of diversification policies aimed at broadening Ireland's enterprise base of productive firms.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
5.70%
发文量
37
期刊最新文献
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