将民粹主义言论与右翼立场相结合对候选人选举支持率的影响

IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102787
Diogo Ferrari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

最近,右翼民粹主义者在各个民主国家的选举中取得了成功,这引发了大量研究,调查民粹主义者获得群众支持的原因。这些研究一致认为,民粹主义者 "厚重 "的政策立场,如反移民和社会保守主义,部分解释了他们的支持率,但对于民粹主义者 "单薄 "的言论是否会影响对民粹主义者的支持,研究结果不一。本文通过探究将 "单薄 "的民粹主义与不同的 "厚重 "立场相结合是否会给候选人带来选举优势,而不是只采取后者来研究这一问题。通过在美国进行的一项原创联合实验,本文表明,民粹主义领导人的 "薄 "言论本身并不会影响其选举支持率。然而,当右翼候选人将 "单薄 "的民粹主义与 "厚重 "的立场相结合时,这两种立场对候选人支持率的影响要远远大于采取相同的右翼立场但不与民粹主义相结合的候选人。这只在持有民粹主义态度的右翼选民中发现,这表明民粹主义可以为右翼候选人带来选举优势,但不会导致选民因民粹主义而跨越意识形态界限。
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The effect of combining a populist rhetoric into right-wing positions on candidates’ electoral support

The recent electoral success of right-wing populists in various democracies sparked a rich body of studies investigating the causes of populists’ mass support. These studies agree that populists’ “thick” policy positions, such as anti-immigration and social conservatism, partially explain their support, but there are mixed findings on whether populists’ “thin” rhetoric affects support for populists. This paper examines this problem by asking if combining a “thin” populism with different “thick” positions gives candidates any electoral advantage over adopting only the latter. Using an original conjoint experiment conducted in the US, it shows that populist leaders’ “thin” rhetoric alone does not affect their electoral support. However, when right-wing candidates combine “thin” populism with “thick” positions, the effect of combining these two stances on candidates’ ratings is substantially larger than adopting the same respective right-wing positions but not combining them with populism. This was found only among right-wing voters who hold populist attitudes, suggesting that populism can be electorally advantageous for right-wing candidates, but it does not lead voters to cross ideology lines because of populism.

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来源期刊
Electoral Studies
Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
82
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.
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