人工智能是使先进技术文明在宇宙中罕见的伟大过滤器吗?

Michael Garrett
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摘要

本研究探讨了这样一种假设,即人工智能(AI)的快速发展,最终导致人工超级智能(ASI)的出现,这可能是造成宇宙中先进技术文明稀缺的 "大过滤器"。有人提出,在这些文明能够发展出稳定的多行星存在之前,这种过滤器就已经出现了,这表明技术文明的典型寿命(L)不到 200 年。当把这种对 L 的估计应用于乐观版本的德雷克方程时,与最近的 SETI 勘测和其他在电磁频谱范围内探测各种技术信号的努力所获得的空结果是一致的。通过 SETI 的视角,我们反思了人类目前的技术发展轨迹--这里提出的 L 模式预测,强调了迅速建立地球人工智能发展监管框架和推进多行星社会发展的迫切需要,以减轻这种生存威胁。宇宙中是否存在有意识的智能生命,可能取决于能否及时有效地实施此类国际监管措施和技术努力。
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Is Artificial Intelligence the great filter that makes advanced technical civilisations rare in the universe?
This study examines the hypothesis that the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), culminating in the emergence of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), could act as a "Great Filter" that is responsible for the scarcity of advanced technological civilisations in the universe. It is proposed that such a filter emerges before these civilisations can develop a stable, multiplanetary existence, suggesting the typical longevity (L) of a technical civilization is less than 200 years. Such estimates for L, when applied to optimistic versions of the Drake equation, are consistent with the null results obtained by recent SETI surveys, and other efforts to detect various technosignatures across the electromagnetic spectrum. Through the lens of SETI, we reflect on humanity's current technological trajectory - the modest projections for L suggested here, underscore the critical need to quickly establish regulatory frameworks for AI development on Earth and the advancement of a multiplanetary society to mitigate against such existential threats. The persistence of intelligent and conscious life in the universe could hinge on the timely and effective implementation of such international regulatory measures and technological endeavours.
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