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引用次数: 0
摘要
本文探讨了随机建模方法,以阐明金融市场中股票价格和波动的复杂动态。本文从布朗运动及其在金融学中的历史意义开始,深入探讨了各种随机模型,包括经典的布莱克-斯科尔斯框架、海斯顿模型、分数布朗运动、GARCH 模型和列维过程。通过深入研究,我们分析了每种模型在捕捉金融时间序列数据关键特征方面的优势和局限。我们的实证分析侧重于使用 Levy 过程进行参数估计和模型校准,证明了它们在预测股票收益方面的有效性。不过,我们也承认需要进一步完善和探索,并提出了未来研究的潜在途径,如混合建模方法。总之,本研究强调了随机建模在理解市场动态和为金融业决策提供信息方面的重要性。
A Basic Overview of Various Stochastic Approaches to Financial Modeling With Examples
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate
dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an
overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we
delve into various stochastic models, including the classic Black-Scholes
framework, the Heston model, fractional Brownian motion, GARCH models, and Levy
processes. Through a thorough investigation, we analyze the strengths and
limitations of each model in capturing key features of financial time series
data. Our empirical analysis focuses on parameter estimation and model
calibration using Levy processes, demonstrating their effectiveness in
predicting stock returns. However, we acknowledge the need for further
refinement and exploration, suggesting potential avenues for future research,
such as hybrid modeling approaches. Overall, this study underscores the
importance of stochastic modeling in understanding market dynamics and informs
decision-making in the financial industry.