Has nitrogen availability decreased over much of the land surface in the past century? A model-based analysis

A recent publication (Mason et al. in Science 376:261, 2022a) suggested that nitrogen (N) availability has declined as a consequence of multiple ongoing components of anthropogenic global change. This suggestion is controversial, because human alteration of the global N cycle is substantial and has driven much-increased fixation of N globally. We used a simple model that has been validated across a climate gradient in Hawai ‘i to test the possibility of a widespread decline in N availability, the evidence supporting it, and the possible mechanisms underlying it. This analysis showed that a decrease in δ¹⁵N is not sufficient evidence for a decline in N availability, because δ¹⁵N in ecosystems reflects both the isotope ratios in inputs of N to the ecosystem AND fractionation of N isotopes as N cycles, with enrichment of the residual N in the ecosystem caused by greater losses of N by the fractionating pathways that are more important in N-rich sites. However, there is other evidence for declining N availability that is independent of ¹⁵N and that suggests a widespread decline in N availability. We evaluated whether and how components of anthropogenic global change could cause declining N availability. Earlier work had demonstrated that both increases in the variability of precipitation due to climate change and ecosystem-level disturbance could drive uncontrollable losses of N that reduce N availability and could cause persistent N limitation at equilibrium. Here we modelled climate-change-driven increases in temperature and increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO₂. We show that increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations can drive non-equilibrium decreases in N availability and cause the development of N limitation, while the effects of increased temperature appear to be relatively small and short-lived. These environmental changes may cause reductions in N availability over the vast areas of Earth that are not affected by high rates of atmospheric deposition and/or N enrichment associated with urban and agricultural land use.