[Long-term outcome of patients with rectal cancer who achieve complete or near complete clinical responses after neoadjuvant therapy: a multicenter registry study of data from the Chinese Watch and Wait Database].

Objective: To report the long-term outcomes of Chinese rectal cancer patients after adopting a Watch and Wait (W&W) strategy following neoadjuvant therapy (NAT). Methods: This multicenter, cross-sectional study was based on real-world data. The study cohort comprised rectal cancer patients who had achieved complete or near complete clinical responses (cCRs, near-cCRs) after NAT and were thereafter managed by a W&W approach, as well as a few patients who had achieved good responses after NAT and had then undergone local excision for confirmation of pathological complete response. All participants had been followed up for ≥2 years. Patients with distant metastases at baseline or who opted for observation while living with the tumor were excluded. Data of eligible patients were retrospectively collected from the Chinese Wait-and-Watch Data Collaboration Group database. These included baseline characteristics, type of NAT, pre-treatment imaging results, evaluation of post-NAT efficacy, salvage measures, and treatment outcomes. We herein report the long-term outcomes of Chinese rectal cancer patients after NAT and W&W and the differences between the cCR and near-cCR groups. Results: Clinical data of 318 rectal cancer patients who had undergone W&W for over 2 years and been followed up were collected from eight medical centers (Peking University Cancer Hospital, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Shanghai Changhai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Liaoning Cancer Hospital, the First Hospital of Jilin University, and Yunnan Cancer Hospital.) The participants comprised 221 men (69.4%) and 107 women (30.6%) of median age 60 (26-86) years. The median distance between tumor and anal verge was 3.4 (0-10.4) cm. Of these patients, 291 and 27 had achieved cCR or near-cCR, respectively, after NAT. The median duration of follow-up was 48.4 (10.2-110.3) months. The 5-year cumulative overall survival rate was 92.4% (95%CI: 86.8%-95.7%), 5-year cumulative disease-specific survival (CSS) rate 96.6% (95%CI: 92.2%-98.5%), 5-year cumulative organ-preserving disease-free survival rate 86.6% (95%CI: 81.0%-90.7%), and 5-year organ preservation rate 85.3% (95%CI: 80.3%-89.1%). The overall 5-year local recurrence and distant metastasis rates were 18.5% (95%CI: 14.9%-20.8%) and 8.2% (95%CI: 5.4%-12.5%), respectively. Most local recurrences (82.1%, 46/56) occurred within 2 years, and 91.0% (51/56) occurred within 3 years, the median time to recurrence being 11.7 (2.5-66.6) months. Most (91.1%, 51/56) local recurrences occurred within the intestinal lumen. Distant metastases developed in 23 patients; 60.9% (14/23) occurred within 2 years and 73.9% (17/23) within 3 years, the median time to distant metastasis being 21.9 (2.6-90.3) months. Common sites included lung (15/23, 65.2%), liver (6/23, 26.1%), and bone (7/23, 30.4%) The metastases involved single organs in 17 patients and multiple organs in six. There were no significant differences in overall, cumulative disease-specific, or organ-preserving disease-free survival or rate of metastases between the two groups (all P>0.05). The 5-year local recurrence rate was higher in the near-cCR than in the cCR group (41.6% vs. 16.4%, P<0.01), with a lower organ preservation rate (69.2% vs. 88.0%, P<0.001). The success rates of salvage after local recurrence and distant metastasis were 82.1% (46/56) and 13.0% (3/23), respectively. Conclusion: Rectal cancer patients who achieve cCR or near-cCR after NAT and undergo W&W have favorable oncological outcomes and a high rate of organ preservation. Local recurrence and distant metastasis during W&W follow certain patterns, with a relatively high salvage rate for local recurrence. Our findings highlight the importance of close follow-up and timely intervention during the W&W process.