Trends in the future evolution of rural settlements in oasis-desert areas under water use simulation scenarios: Take the Hexi Corridor region of China as an example

The uncontrolled expansion of rural settlements caused by the imbalance in the matching of land and water resources has hindered the realization of the goal of sustainable rural development in the oasis-desert area. In this study, “water resources-land resources-oasis rural settlements” are integrated into the same framework of symbiosis development, and the evolution of rural settlements in the context of water and land resources constraints is predicted. We used the coupled “SD-SOS-FLUS” (“system dynamics-suitable oasis structure-future land use simulation”) model to predict the differences in rural settlement sizes and their spatial distribution under the inertial development water use scenario (ID) and sustainable development water use scenario (SD) in the northeast part of the Hexi Corridor in China. In addition, we explored differences in oasis circle structure and land use structure under different water allocation scenarios. Compared with a single model, the coupled model “SD-SOS-FLUS” can better simulate the symbiosis relationship between “water resources-land resources- oasis rural settlements”. Through the prediction, the proportion of water used for production in the ID scenario is still as high as 86.30 %, while the proportion of ecological water use is only 11.50 %, and the continuous imbalance of the water use structure results in the area of arable land and rural settlements will be increased to 7,473.21 km² and 487.16 km². It increased by 115.63 km² and 41.28 km² respectively compared to 2020, which in turn made the oasis area expanding outward, and the radius R of the oasis also increased from 53.65 km in 2020 to 54.79 km in 2030. The area of arable land and rural settlements under water and land resource constraints in the SD scenario decreased to 5223.56 km² and 105.04 km². The contraction of the oasis increases the transition zone circle width B₂ from 19.88 km in 2020 to 24.58 km in 2030, an increase of 5 km compared to the ID scenario. As a result of the spatial reconfiguration, the number of rural settlement patches decreased from 1.04 × 10⁴ to 0.15 × 10⁴ in 2020, saving 3.41 × 10⁴ ha of land after optimization.