Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools

Coffee is a crucial crop for the economy of several countries. It contributes substantially to the livelihoods of millions of small producers worldwide. Coffea canephora represents 40% of the world's production of beans. Coffea canephora is a perennial crop, it is sensitive to climate, and several production areas in Brazil may become unfit for C. canephora cultivation due to expected climate change. Thus, knowledge of the temporal dynamics of favorable climate conditions for C. canephora in Brazil is necessary. This work aims to elaborate the CLIMEX model to predict the climatic suitability for C. canephora in Brazil in the current climate and front of climate changes for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The model shows a good agreement between the density and the growth rate of the species, which indicates significant reliability of the results in the proposed model. Our modeling results show that there has been a reduction in the areas very favorable to C. Canephora over the years, in the North, Southeast, and the entire east coast of the Northeast regions. Compared to the current scenario, the model projection reduces by 49, 73, 82, and 88% in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. The results may help long-term planning strategies to mitigate the economic effects of the climate change scenario on C. canephora production in Brazil.

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