Association between COVID-19 severity and tobacco smoking status: a retrospective cohort study using propensity score matching weights analysis

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a global threat to public health, with over 766 million confirmed cases and more than 6 million reported deaths. Patients with a smoking history are at a greater risk of severe respiratory complications and death due to COVID-19. This study investigated the association between smoking history and adverse clinical outcomes among COVID-19 patients admitted to a designated medical centre in Saudi Arabia. Methods A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted using patient chart review data from a large tertiary medical centre in the eastern region of the country. Patients admitted between January and December 2020 were screened. The inclusion criteria were ≥18 years of age and confirmed COVID-19 infection via reverse-transcription-PCR. The exclusion criteria were unconfirmed COVID-19 infection, non-COVID-19 admissions, unconfirmed smoking status, vaccinated individuals, essential chart information missing or refusal to consent. Statistical analyses comprised crude estimates, matching weights (as the main analysis) and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) causal pathway analysis using an ordinal regression model. Results The sample comprised 447 patients (never-smoker=321; ever-smoker=126). The median age (IQR) was 50 years (39–58), and 73.4% of the sample were males. A matching weights procedure was employed to ensure covariate balance. The analysis revealed that the odds of developing severe COVID-19 were higher in the ever-smoker group with an OR of 1.44 (95% CI 0.90 to 2.32, p=0.130). This was primarily due to an increase in non-invasive oxygen therapy with an OR of 1.05 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.10, p=0.101). The findings were consistent across the different analytical methods employed, including crude estimates and DAGs causal pathway analysis. Conclusion Our findings suggest that smoking may increase the risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes. However, the study was limited by its retrospective design and small sample size. Further research is therefore needed to confirm the findings. Data available upon request.