系统风险的多尺度 SUR 估算

Antonis A. Michis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们基于基于小波变换的时间序列观测结果,提出了一种多尺度版本的看似无关回归模型。每个回归方程指的是不同的时间尺度,这样就能在可行的 GLS 估计过程中使用跨尺度误差协方差,从而提高效率。我们通过两项研究证明了所提出的方法相对于 OLS 的优势:一项是使用美国主要工业部门股票市场收益率进行的实证研究,另一项是使用替代小波滤波器进行的详细蒙特卡罗模拟研究。我们还解释了所提出的方法是否适用于估算长期系统性风险。
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Multiscale SUR Estimation of Systematic Risk
We propose a multiscale version of the seemingly unrelated regressions model, based on wavelet transform-based time series observations. Each regression equation refers to a different time scale, which enables the use of across-scale error covariances in the feasible GLS estimation procedure for efficiency gains. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over OLS with two studies: an empirical study using stock market returns for the main US industrial sectors and a detailed Monte Carlo simulation study with alternative wavelet filters. We also provide explanations for the suitability of the proposed method for estimating long-term systematic risk.
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