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Asymptotic Properties of ReLU FFN Sieve Estimators ReLU FFN 筛选估计器的渐近特性
Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0072
Frank J. Fabozzi, Hasan Fallahgoul, Vincentius Franstianto, Grégoire Loeper
Recently, machine learning algorithms have increasing become popular tools for economic and financial forecasting. While there are several machine learning algorithms for doing so, a powerful and efficient algorithm for forecasting purposes is the multi-layer, multi-node neural network with rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function – deep neural network (DNN). Studies have demonstrated the empirical applications of DNN but have devoted less research to investigate its statistical properties which is mainly due to its severe nonlinearity and heavy parametrization. By borrowing tools from a non-parametric regression framework, sieve estimator, we first show that there exists such a sieve estimator for a DNN. We next establish three asymptotic properties of the ReLU network: consistency, sieve-based convergence rate, and asymptotic normality, and then validate our theoretical results using Monte Carlo analysis.
最近,机器学习算法日益成为经济和金融预测的流行工具。虽然有多种机器学习算法可用于预测,但用于预测的强大而高效的算法是具有整流线性单元(ReLU)激活函数的多层多节点神经网络--深度神经网络(DNN)。研究已经证明了 DNN 的经验应用,但对其统计特性的研究较少,这主要是由于其严重的非线性和参数化程度高。通过借用非参数回归框架的工具--筛子估计器,我们首先证明了 DNN 存在这样一个筛子估计器。接下来,我们建立了 ReLU 网络的三个渐近特性:一致性、基于筛子的收敛速率和渐近正态性,然后利用蒙特卡罗分析验证了我们的理论结果。
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引用次数: 0
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity 具有共异方差性的多元随机波动性
Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0056
Joshua Chan, Arnaud Doucet, Roberto León-González, Rodney W. Strachan
A new methodology that decomposes shocks into homoscedastic and heteroscedastic components is developed. This specification implies there exist linear combinations of heteroscedastic variables that eliminate heteroscedasticity; a property known as co-heteroscedasticity. The heteroscedastic part of the model uses a multivariate stochastic volatility inverse Wishart process. The resulting model is invariant to the ordering of the variables, which is shown to be important for volatility estimation. By incorporating testable co-heteroscedasticity restrictions, the specification allows estimation in moderately high-dimensions. The computational strategy uses a novel particle filter algorithm, a reparameterization that substantially improves algorithmic convergence and an alternating-order particle Gibbs that reduces the amount of particles needed for accurate estimation. An empirical application to a large Vector Autoregression (VAR) is provided, finding strong evidence for co-heteroscedasticity and that the new method outperforms some previously proposed methods in terms of forecasting at all horizons. It is also found that the structural monetary shock is 98.8 % homoscedastic, and that investment and the SP 500 index are nearly 100 % determined by fat tail heteroscedastic shocks. A Monte Carlo experiment illustrates that the new method estimates well the characteristics of approximate factor models with heteroscedastic errors.
本文提出了一种新方法,将冲击分解为同方差和异方差两个部分。这种规范意味着存在消除异方差性的异方差变量线性组合;这种特性被称为共异方差性。该模型的异方差部分使用了多元随机波动逆 Wishart 过程。由此得到的模型对变量的排序具有不变性,这对波动率估计非常重要。通过加入可检验的共异速限制,该规范允许在中等高维度上进行估计。计算策略采用了一种新颖的粒子滤波算法、一种可大幅提高算法收敛性的重参数化方法和一种交替阶粒子吉布斯方法,后者可减少精确估算所需的粒子数量。对一个大型向量自回归(VAR)进行了实证应用,发现了共异方差的有力证据,并发现新方法在所有期限的预测方面都优于之前提出的一些方法。研究还发现,结构性货币冲击具有 98.8% 的同方差性,而投资和 SP 500 指数几乎 100% 由胖尾异方差冲击决定。蒙特卡罗实验表明,新方法能很好地估计具有异方差误差的近似因子模型的特征。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity, Jumps and Co-Movements in Transmission of Volatility Spillovers Among Cryptocurrencies 加密货币间波动性溢出效应传播中的异质性、跃迁和共同运动
Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0088
Konstantinos Gkillas, Maria Tantoula, Manolis Tzagarakis
We analyze properties identified in the price volatility of Bitcoin and some of the leading cryptocurrencies namely Litecoin, Ripple, and Ethereum. We employ Heterogeneous Autoregressive models (HAR) in both a univariate and multivariate level of analysis. First, the significance of heterogeneity and jumps is examined, considering the ability of several univariate HAR models, to predict realized volatility of cryptocurrencies. Second, we examine the relevance of realized volatility jumps and covariances in the transmission of volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies. We perform a comparative spillover analysis of the multivariate HAR models in two versions, considering variances only and covariances as well. Our results indicate that covariances and jumps inclusion lead to an increase in spillovers. The time-varying spillover analysis indicates higher dependency between Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies mostly at short frequencies.
我们分析了比特币和一些主要加密货币(即莱特币、瑞波币和以太坊)的价格波动特性。我们采用异质自回归模型(HAR)进行单变量和多变量分析。首先,考虑到几个单变量 HAR 模型预测加密货币已实现波动率的能力,我们研究了异质性和跳跃的重要性。其次,我们研究了已实现波动率跳跃和协方差在加密货币间波动溢出效应传播中的相关性。我们对两个版本的多变量 HAR 模型进行了溢出比较分析,分别只考虑了方差和协方差。我们的结果表明,包含协方差和跳跃会导致溢出效应增加。时变溢出效应分析表明,比特币与其他加密货币之间的依赖性较高,主要表现在短频率上。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous Volatility Information Content for the Realized GARCH Modeling and Forecasting Volatility 实现 GARCH 建模和预测波动的异质波动信息含量
Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2024-0013
Wen Xu, Pakorn Aschakulporn, Jin E. Zhang
As the demand for accuracy in volatility modeling and forecasting increases, the literature tends to incorporate different volatility measures with heterogeneous information content to construct the hybrid volatility model. This study focuses on one of the popular hybrid volatility models: the Realized Generalized Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (Realized GARCH) and embeds various volatility measures, including the CBOE VIX, VIX1D, Realized Volatility, and Daily Range to examine their heterogeneous impact on the conditional volatility estimation and forecasting. To evaluate the impact of the volatility measures, we first construct a volatility response function. This involves calculating the difference in one-step-ahead conditional volatility forecasts that incorporate information from both return and volatility measures against the forecasts based on return innovations only. Subsequently, the variance share is calculated to evaluate its role in explaining future variations in the Realized GARCH. Our results show that among these four volatility measures, VIX is the most informative volatility. Although VIX1D is overemphasized by the literature, its significance in volatility forecasting remains substantial, confirming that risk-neutral volatility measures are generally more informative than physical measures. Finally, we also find that incorporating multiple risk-neutral volatility measures does not improve forecasting performance compared to using a single measure due to overlapping information.
随着对波动率建模和预测准确性的要求越来越高,相关文献倾向于结合具有异质性信息含量的不同波动率指标来构建混合波动率模型。本研究聚焦于流行的混合波动率模型之一:实变广义自回归异方差模型(实变 GARCH),并嵌入了各种波动率指标,包括 CBOE VIX、VIX1D、实变波动率和每日范围,以检验它们对条件波动率估计和预测的异质性影响。为了评估波动率指标的影响,我们首先构建了波动率响应函数。这包括计算包含收益率和波动率指标信息的一步前条件波动率预测与仅基于收益率创新的预测之间的差异。随后,计算方差份额,以评估其在解释实现 GARCH 未来变化中的作用。我们的结果表明,在这四种波动率指标中,VIX 是信息量最大的波动率指标。虽然 VIX1D 在文献中被过分强调,但它在波动率预测中的重要性仍然很大,这证实了风险中性波动率指标通常比物理指标更有参考价值。最后,我们还发现,由于信息重叠,与使用单一指标相比,采用多种风险中性波动指标并不能提高预测性能。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of the Number of Breaks in Heterogeneous Panel Data Models 确定异质面板数据模型中的中断次数
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2024-0018
Lu Wang, Shuke Hu
This paper considers a heterogeneous panel data model with an unknown number of breaks. We propose a so-called two-stage procedure to determine the number of breaks and detect the location of break points. The consistency of the estimated number of breaks and the estimated break points are established under fairly general conditions. Monte Carlo simulations and two empirical applications are provided to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.
本文考虑的是一个断点数量未知的异质面板数据模型。我们提出了一个所谓的两阶段程序来确定断点数和检测断点位置。在相当一般的条件下,确定了估计的中断数和估计的中断点的一致性。我们提供了蒙特卡罗模拟和两个经验应用,以证明所提方法的有限样本性能。
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引用次数: 0
Which Global Cycle? A Stochastic Factor Selection Approach for Global Macro-Financial Cycles 哪个全球周期?全球宏观金融周期的随机因素选择方法
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0093
Tino Berger, Sebastian Hienzsch
Instead of assuming a certain factor structure, we statistically test for the factor structure driving common global dynamics in macroeconomic and financial data by employing a stochastic factor selection approach. Using a sample of 16 developed countries from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4, we present strong empirical evidence of a global macro-financial cycle and an independent global financial cycle. Moreover, the global macro-financial cycle we estimate is essentially the global business cycle identified in the literature. It captures the common global macroeconomic dynamics and drives a significant share of the comovement in the financial sector. The remaining commonality in financial variables is driven by separate global financial cycles: the global credit cycle and the global capital flow cycle.
我们没有假设某种因子结构,而是采用随机因子选择方法,对宏观经济和金融数据中驱动全球共同动态的因子结构进行了统计检验。利用 1996Q1 至 2019Q4 16 个发达国家的样本,我们提出了全球宏观金融周期和独立全球金融周期的有力经验证据。此外,我们估计的全球宏观金融周期本质上就是文献中确定的全球商业周期。它捕捉到了全球宏观经济的共同动态,并驱动了金融部门的大部分相关性。金融变量的其余共性是由单独的全球金融周期驱动的:全球信贷周期和全球资本流动周期。
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引用次数: 0
Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Multiple Threshold Parameters 基于似然比的多重阈值参数置信区间
Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0029
Luiggi Donayre
This paper proposes the inversion of likelihood ratio tests for the construction of confidence intervals for multiple threshold parameters. Using Monte Carlo simulations, conservative likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals are shown to exhibit empirical coverage rates at least as high as nominal levels for all threshold parameters, while still being informative in the sense of only including relatively few observations in each confidence interval. These findings are robust to the magnitude of the threshold effect, the sample size and the presence of serial correlation. Applications to existing models with multiple thresholds for U.S. real GDP growth and for the wage Phillips curve demonstrate how the proposed approach is empirically relevant to make inferences about the uncertainty of threshold estimates.
本文提出用似然比检验反演来构建多个临界参数的置信区间。通过蒙特卡罗模拟,基于似然比的保守置信区间显示出所有临界值参数的经验覆盖率至少与名义水平一样高,同时在每个置信区间只包含相对较少的观测值的意义上仍然具有信息量。这些发现对临界值效应的大小、样本大小和序列相关性的存在都是稳健的。对美国实际 GDP 增长和工资菲利普斯曲线具有多个临界值的现有模型的应用表明,所提出的方法在推断临界值估计值的不确定性方面具有经验相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Homogeneity Pursuit in the Functional-Coefficient Quantile Regression Model for Panel Data with Censored Data 带矢量数据的面板数据功能系数量子回归模型中的同质性追求
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0024
Lu Li, Yue Xia, Shuyi Ren, Xiaorong Yang
Homogeneity identification of panel data models has been popular in the literature in recent years. Most of the existing works only focus on the complete data case. This paper considers a functional-coefficient quantile regression model for panel data with homogeneity when its response variables are subject to censoring. In particular, we consider a more general censoring framework, i.e. different types of censoring are allowed to occur in the model simultaneously. For this, a “three-stage” method is proposed, which includes the preliminary estimation of subject-specific function coefficients based on data augmentation, the identification of group structure over subjects by clustering, and post-grouping estimation of function coefficients. Simulation studies considering the left-, right-, and double-censored data, are carried out to verify the finite-sample properties of the proposed method. Simulation results show that our method gives comparable performance to the complete data case. The application to the bank stock data further illustrates the practical advantages of this method.
近年来,面板数据模型的同质性识别在文献中很受欢迎。现有的大多数著作只关注完整数据的情况。本文考虑的是面板数据的函数系数量化回归模型,该模型在响应变量受到剔除时具有同质性。特别是,我们考虑了一个更一般的剔除框架,即允许模型中同时出现不同类型的剔除。为此,我们提出了一种 "三阶段 "方法,包括基于数据扩增的特定受试者函数系数的初步估计、通过聚类确定受试者的群体结构,以及聚类后的函数系数估计。我们对左删失、右删失和双删失数据进行了模拟研究,以验证所提方法的有限样本特性。仿真结果表明,我们的方法与完整数据情况下的方法性能相当。对银行股票数据的应用进一步说明了该方法的实际优势。
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引用次数: 0
Non-Linear Impact of Income Inequality on Mental Health: Evidence from Low and Middle-Income Countries 收入不平等对心理健康的非线性影响:来自中低收入国家的证据
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0113
Ankita Mishra, Abebe Hailemariam, Preety Srivastava, Greeni Maheshwari
In this study, we examine the relationship between income inequality and mental health using a sample of low and middle-income countries over the period 1990–2019. Using a dynamic panel threshold model that allows for endogeneity in both the regressors and threshold variable, we find a non-linear relationship between income inequality and the prevalence of mental health disorders. Specifically, income inequality is associated with reduced prevalence of mental health disorders at low levels of income inequality but after it surpasses a threshold Gini coefficient (estimated between 39 and 49), it has an adverse effect on mental health. The impact is more pronounced in low income and lower middle-income countries. We also find evidence of heterogenous effects by age and gender. Our findings indicate the importance of modelling non-linearity in the income inequality-health relationship and highlight the importance of keeping income inequality within reasonable bounds.
在本研究中,我们以 1990-2019 年期间的中低收入国家为样本,研究了收入不平等与心理健康之间的关系。通过使用动态面板阈值模型(该模型允许回归变量和阈值变量存在内生性),我们发现收入不平等与心理健康疾病患病率之间存在非线性关系。具体来说,在收入不平等程度较低时,收入不平等与精神疾病患病率的降低有关,但当收入不平等程度超过基尼系数的临界值(估计在 39 到 49 之间)后,收入不平等就会对精神健康产生不利影响。这种影响在低收入和中低收入国家更为明显。我们还发现了不同年龄和性别产生不同影响的证据。我们的研究结果表明,在收入不平等与健康的关系中建立非线性模型非常重要,并强调了将收入不平等保持在合理范围内的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A Regression-based Method for Estimating Generalised Entropy and Atkinson Inequality Indices and their Standard Errors 基于回归的广义熵和阿特金森不平等指数及其标准误差估算方法
Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1515/snde-2024-0021
Sriram Shankar
In this paper we show that a regression-based approach can be used to estimate generalised entropy and Atkinson inequality indices and their associated standard errors. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated using the health expenditure data from the United States (US) medical expenditure panel survey (MEPS).
在本文中,我们展示了一种基于回归的方法,可用于估算广义熵和阿特金森不平等指数及其相关标准误差。我们使用美国医疗支出面板调查(MEPS)中的医疗支出数据来证明这种方法的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
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