考虑疫苗接种和再感染因素的结核病动态分析确定性分区模型

Eka D.A.Ginting, Dipo Aldila, Iffatricia H. Febiriana
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引用次数: 0

摘要

结核病是一个紧迫的全球健康问题,在许多发展中国家尤为普遍。本研究利用确定性分区流行病学模型,结合疫苗接种干预措施,研究了治疗失败对结核病控制策略的影响。数学分析揭示了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点,并利用新一代方法确定了控制繁殖数。确定流行平衡点和控制繁殖数为评估控制策略的有效性和指导政策决策提供了重要指标。该模型表现出向后分叉现象,尽管由于再感染导致繁殖数低于 1,但仍会出现多个地方性平衡点。利用拉丁超立方采样/部分等级相关系数进行的敏感性分析阐明了参数对控制繁殖数的影响。疫苗接种效果对质量和有效性至关重要,质量越好、有效期越长,效果越显著。虽然再感染可能不会直接影响繁殖数量,但其影响在决定结核病的持续或灭绝方面至关重要。这项研究强调了结核病控制策略中各种因素之间错综复杂的相互作用,为有效干预和政策制定提供了至关重要的见解。
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A deterministic compartment model for analyzing tuberculosis dynamics considering vaccination and reinfection

Tuberculosis is a pressing global health concern, particularly pervasive in many developing nations. This study investigates the influence of treatment failure on tuberculosis control strategies, incorporating vaccination interventions using a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model. Mathematical analysis unveils disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, with the control reproduction number determined using next-generation methods. Identifying endemic equilibrium points and determining the control reproduction number provide essential metrics for assessing the effectiveness of control strategies and guiding policy decisions. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon, leading to multiple endemic equilibria despite a reproduction number below one due to reinfection. Sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient elucidates parameter impacts on the control reproduction number. Vaccination efficacy is crucial for quality and validity, with superior quality and longer validity yielding more significant effects. While reinfection may not directly affect the reproduction number, its influence is pivotal in determining tuberculosis persistence or extinction. This study underscores the intricate interplay of factors in tuberculosis control strategies, providing insights vital for effective interventions and policy formulation.

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来源期刊
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Simulation, Nursing and Health Professions (General)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
79 days
期刊最新文献
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