Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania

Climate variability impacts various global challenges, including food security, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and human well-being. However, climate patterns and trends and community perceptions at spatially-explicit levels have been minimally addressed. The spatial and temporal trends of climate conditions in Bagamoyo District in Tanzania were examined using historical (1983–2010) and projected (2022–2050) meteorological and climate model data, respectively. Community knowledge and experiences of past climate occurrences were included. The implications of projected climate change for regional agricultural production and food security were assessed. The study drew on empirical data obtained from household surveys conducted in seven villages in the district. Effectively, 309 households were randomly sampled across the villages to provide the perception of climate change and associated impacts on agriculture and livelihoods. Both qualitative and quantitative statistical techniques were employed to analyse the incidence, frequency, and intensity of regional extreme climate events. The meteorological and climate modelling data were subjected to trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests, and the present and projected spatial and temporal trends of climatic variables in the region were analysed. The household-based questionnaire results were combined with climate modelling and the literature to determine the implications of climate change for regional agricultural production and food security. The results revealed that local knowledge and climate model data strongly concur on regional climate changes. Furthermore, the region is highly likely to experience increased warming and decreased precipitation at varying magnitudes. The shifts in climate trends and patterns are anticipated to greatly impact agricultural production, affecting livelihoods and hampering food security efforts. Recommendations include adopting context-specific measures and tailored strategies for enhancing resilience throughout the entire region.