关于社会距离对 COVID-19 传播动态审查影响的 SEIR 模型

Abubakar Abdullahi Madaki, Aminu Sambo
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摘要

COVID-19 大流行对世界卫生产生了巨大影响,许多国家颁布了封锁和社会隔离措施,以帮助减少传播。然而,这些努力的效率值得怀疑,尤其是在尼日利亚东北部等地区,那里特定的社会经济和人口特征会改变病毒传播的动态。在本文中,我们通过修改 SIR 到 SEIR 的分区模型,结合国家疾病控制中心的数据,对尼日利亚东北部的大流行进行了评估。我们发现,在减缓 COVID-19 在该地区的传播方面,口罩、洗手和避免大型集会等社会隔离技术比封锁更为成功。我们的研究结果表明,未来的大流行应对计划应侧重于既有效又可行的社会隔离措施,同时避免封锁造成的经济和社会混乱。我们的工作强调了在包括尼日利亚东北部在内的各种情况下采取专门方法控制流行病的重要性。
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SEIR Model on the Review Impact of Social Distancing for COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge influence on world health, with many countries enacting lockdowns and social distancing measures to help reduce transmission. However, the efficiency of these efforts is questionable, particularly in locations like as North East Nigeria, where specific socioeconomic and demographic characteristics can alter virus transmission dynamics. In this paper, we assess the pandemic in North East Nigeria by modifying the SIR to SEIR compartmental model, which incorporates data from the National Centre for Disease Control. We exposed that social distancing techniques like face masks, hand washing, and avoiding big gatherings are more successful than lockdowns in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in the region. Our findings suggest that future pandemic response plans should concentrate on social distancing measures that are both effective and feasible while avoiding the economic and social disruptions caused by lockdowns. Our work emphasizes the significance of specialized approaches to pandemic control in varied situations, including North East Nigeria.
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