利用机器学习模型预测 2030 年可持续发展目标得分

IF 9.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Sustainable Development Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI:10.1002/sd.3037
Kimia Chenary, Omid Pirian Kalat, Ayyoob Sharifi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

联合国制定的可持续发展目标(SDGs)在全球范围内呼吁消除贫困、保护环境、应对气候变化,并保证到 2030 年人人享有和平与繁荣。这 17 个目标涵盖了有关健康、教育、不平等、环境恶化和气候变化的各种全球性问题。为跟踪实现这些目标的进展情况,已经开展了多项调查。然而,关于预测可持续发展目标得分的研究却很有限。本研究旨在使用 ARIMAX 和通过 HW(霍尔特-温特斯)乘法技术平滑的 LR(线性回归)预测全球各地区到 2030 年的可持续发展目标得分。为了提高模型性能,我们使用了从可持续发展目标中识别出的预测因子,这些预测因子在未来更有可能受到人工智能(AI)的影响。2030 年的预测结果显示,"经合组织国家"(80)(变化率为 2.8%)和 "东欧和中亚"(74)(变化率为 2.37%)有望获得最高的可持续发展目标得分。"拉丁美洲和加勒比地区"(73 分)(变化 4.17%)、"东亚和南亚"(69 分)(变化 2.64%)、"中东和北非"(68 分)(变化 2.32%)和 "撒哈拉以南非洲"(56 分)(变化 7.2%)的可持续发展目标实现水平将分别较低。
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Forecasting sustainable development goals scores by 2030 using machine learning models
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations are a worldwide appeal to eliminate poverty, preserve the environment, address climate change, and guarantee that everyone experiences peace and prosperity by 2030. These 17 goals cover various global issues concerning health, education, inequality, environmental decline, and climate change. Several investigations have been carried out to track advancements toward these goals. However, there is limited research on forecasting SDG scores. This research aims to forecast SDG scores for global regions by 2030 using ARIMAX and LR (Linear Regression) smoothed by HW (Holt‐Winters') multiplicative technique. To enhance model performance, we used predictors identified from the SDGs that are more likely to be influenced by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the future. The forecast results for 2030 show that “OECD countries” (80) (with a 2.8% change) and “Eastern Europe and Central Asia” (74) (with a 2.37% change) are expected to achieve the highest SDG scores. “Latin America and the Caribbean” (73) (with a 4.17% change), “East and South Asia” (69) (with a 2.64% change), “Middle East and North Africa” (68) (with a 2.32% change), and “Sub‐Saharan Africa” (56) (with a 7.2% change) will display lower levels of SDG achievement, respectively.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
17.30
自引率
11.20%
发文量
168
期刊介绍: Sustainable Development is a publication that takes an interdisciplinary approach to explore and propose strategies for achieving sustainable development. Our aim is to discuss and address the challenges associated with sustainable development and the Sustainable Development Goals. All submissions are subjected to a thorough review process to ensure that our readers receive valuable and original content of the highest caliber.
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