道路交通事故死亡人数的决定因素:2004-2018 年印度道路交通事故案例

Mohd Hussain Kunroo, Md. Absar Alam
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摘要

本研究的目的是确定影响印度道路事故死亡人数的因素。为实现这一目标,研究采用了面板计量经济学方法,如固定效应模型、随机效应模型和豪斯曼-泰勒工具变量技术。各邦/中央直辖区(UT)和时间之间的非观测异质性由时间固定效应和邦固定效应来解释。基于 2004-2018 年期间印度各邦/中央直辖区的面板数据集,研究证实了之前的结果,即机动化、人口、城市化和收入水平都是导致道路交通事故和死亡的潜在因素。研究还表明,医疗保健和执法支出似乎有助于印度各邦最大限度地降低道路交通事故死亡率。一方面,医疗保健设施方面的支出可以为交通事故当事人提供与健康有关的帮助;另一方面,警察方面的支出可以加强规则的执行,从而减少交通事故。因此,为了降低该国道路交通事故的经济和财政成本,政府应重点提高人均医疗支出和人均警务支出。JEL Codes:C23, C26, H51, I18, L92, O18, R41, R42
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Determinants of Road Traffic Crash Fatalities: A Case of Road Accidents in India, 2004–2018
The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence deaths in road accidents in India. The study uses panel econometric methodologies such as the fixed effects model, random effects model, and Hausman–Taylor instrumental variable technique to achieve this goal. Unobserved heterogeneity between states/union territories (UTs) and time is accounted for by time-fixed and state-fixed effects. Based on the panel data set from Indian states/UTs for the period 2004–2018, the study confirms previous results that motorisation, population, urbanisation and income level are all potential contributors to road accidents and fatalities. It also shows that spending on health care and law enforcement appears to help the Indian states minimise mortality in road traffic accidents. On the one hand, spending on health care facilities can provide health-related assistance to persons who have been involved in traffic accidents; on the other hand, spending on police increases the enforcement of rules, resulting in a reduction in traffic accidents. Thus, to lessen the economic and financial cost of road accidents in the country, the government should focus on boosting both per capita health expenditure and per capita police expenditure. JEL Codes: C23, C26, H51, I18, L92, O18, R41, R42
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