伊朗濒危山羊品种的种群生存能力分析

IF 1.6 3区 农林科学 Q2 AGRICULTURE, DAIRY & ANIMAL SCIENCE Small Ruminant Research Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI:10.1016/j.smallrumres.2024.107287
Hamid Reza Bahmani , Mahmoud Amiri Roudbar , Seyyed Abu Taleb Sadeghi , Shiva Mafakheri , Saleh Salehi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

伊朗山羊品种,包括 Markhoz、Adani 和 Najdi,被认为是濒危种群,原因是山羊繁殖和羊群数量呈下降趋势、栖息地丧失、使用其他品种繁殖以及存在威胁生存的因素。本研究旨在调查这三个濒危种群的现状,并为保护它们提供必要的信息。为此,在项目实施期间,从现有资源和鸡群中收集了普查数据和所需参数。然后,使用种群存活率分析(PVA)方法模拟了两种情况,即在现有条件下种群过去和未来的动态。最后,对影响生存能力标准的参数进行了敏感性分析。PVA 使用 Vortex 模拟程序 10.5.6 版进行。种群过去的动态模拟结果表明,模型中使用的生物参数和假设具有有效、可靠的值和频率,可用于模拟不同的管理方案。根据该方案,马克霍兹和阿达尼种群的近交率(∆F)已超过 0.5%的临界水平。种群的未来动态模拟显示,近亲繁殖加剧和遗传多样性降低的进程将加快,Markhoz、Adani 和 Najdi 的品种灭绝概率将分别在 2026 年、2033 年和 2031 年开始。首次灭绝的平均时间也分别为 15.4 ± 2.53 年、26.68 ± 3.75 年和 13.96 ± 1.78 年。敏感性分析表明,成年母牛过度采食、饲料限制频率以及与其他品种的竞争对调查品种的种群存活标准影响最大。Markhoz、Najdi 和 Adani 山羊迫切需要保护措施。本研究获得的结果可为提供保护计划准备一个合适的框架。
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Population viability analysis on the Iranian endangered goat breeds

Iranian goat breeds, including Markhoz, Adani, and Najdi, are considered as endangered populations because of the downward trend of breeding goats and flocks, habitat loss, using other breeds in reproduction, and the presence of survival-threatening factors. This research aims to investigate the current status and provide the necessary information to conserve these three endangered populations. For this purpose, the census data and the required parameters were collected from the available resources and flocks during the years of the project implementation. Then, two scenarios, the past and future dynamics of the population assuming continuing existing conditions, were simulated using the population viability analysis (PVA) method. Finally, the sensitivity analyses of parameters affecting the viability criteria were done. PVA was conducted using the Vortex simulation program version 10.5.6. The past dynamics simulation of the population showed that the biological parameters and assumptions used in the model have valid and reliable values and frequencies, and they can be used in the simulation of different management scenarios. Based on this scenario, the inbreeding rates (∆F) for the Markhoz and Adani populations have reached above the critical level of 0.5%. The future dynamics simulation of the population showed that the process of increasing inbreeding and decreasing genetic diversity would accelerate, and the breeds' extinction probability would start in 2026, 2033, and 2031 for Markhoz, Adani, and Najdi, respectively. The mean time to the first extinction was also 15.4 ± 2.53, 26.68 ± 3.75, and 13.96 ±1.78 years, respectively. The sensitivity analyses indicated that adult does overharvest, the frequency of feed limitation, and competition with other breeds had the highest effect on the population viability criteria of the investigated breeds. Markhoz, Najdi, and Adani goats need urgent conservation measures. The results obtained in this research may prepare a suitable framework for providing conservation programs.

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来源期刊
Small Ruminant Research
Small Ruminant Research 农林科学-奶制品与动物科学
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
11.10%
发文量
210
审稿时长
12.5 weeks
期刊介绍: Small Ruminant Research publishes original, basic and applied research articles, technical notes, and review articles on research relating to goats, sheep, deer, the New World camelids llama, alpaca, vicuna and guanaco, and the Old World camels. Topics covered include nutrition, physiology, anatomy, genetics, microbiology, ethology, product technology, socio-economics, management, sustainability and environment, veterinary medicine and husbandry engineering.
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