Roots to roofs: Farmers' perceived socio-ecological impacts of converting mango orchards to urban areas in Multan, Pakistan

The process of urban growth often results in the conversion of agricultural spaces, including orchards. In Pakistan, Multan - widely known as the city of Mangoes - has seen exponential urban growth in the past couple of decades, resulting in a huge loss of Mango orchards to urban settlements. This research focuses on investigating local farmers’ motivations for selling Mango orchards to urban colonies and their perceived implications of transforming mango orchards into residential areas in Multan, Pakistan. By surveying 100 participants, the study captures insights into urban expansion trends, primary motivations behind selling agricultural land, and the social, economic and environmental consequences of such conversions. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis (heatmap) are used to dissect the farmers perceptions on the drivers and implications of Mango orchards' conversion to housing settlements in Multan, Pakistan. Notably, 96% of respondents highlighted that orchards nearer to urban centers were predominantly targeted for conversion. Furthermore, 57% believed less productive orchards were more frequently turned into urban developments. Our correlation analysis provided clarity on the economic dimensions. Participants who felt their orchard was not a profitable venture tended to see greater economic advantages from selling their orchards. Interestingly, individuals motivated by a desire to 'improve quality of life' generally observed an improvement in their living conditions post-sale. On the environmental spectrum, concerns such as potential future temperature rises were consistently associated with several selling motivations, indicating a broad awareness of environmental consequences. This comprehensive research highlight the interplay of economic, social, and environmental factors in orchard-to-housing conversions, presenting valuable knowledge for urban development strategists and decision-makers.