Wari across the Andes: Modeling the radiocarbon evidence

The expansion and impact of the Wari polity across the Andes has been heavily debated by scholars over the past two decades. We use radiocarbon dates, Bayesian statistics, and contextual data from several Andean regions to review the chronology for Wari expansion, political reorganization, and impact on local settlements. We recognize that Wari political and economic influence will vary in space and time and present a model that addresses how influential moments (expansion, reorganization, collapse) in Wari's trajectory may or may not have had broader impacts across the landscapes of its peer polities. Our model, while not completely comprehensive, draws on both Wari's presence in the north highlands and in the south, where scholars have argued for distinct trajectories and character of Wari influence. It also examines data from local communities in these same regions contemporary with identified Wari settlements, but perhaps without outward indicators of Wari hegemony, to evaluate broader patterns in Middle Horizon settlement through the latter half of the first millennium CE.