未来强降水和极端干旱的变化对华南和印度支那经济的影响

IF 6.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI:10.1007/s00376-023-3158-7
Bin Tang, Wenting Hu, Anmin Duan, Yimin Liu, Wen Bao, Yue Xin, Xianyi Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近几十年来,强降水和极端干旱给华南和印度支那(INCSC)造成了严重的经济损失。鉴于华南及印度支那地区国内生产总值(GDP)较大的地区分布在沿海,受全球变暖影响较大,了解未来最大连续5天降水量(RX5day)和最大连续干旱日数(CDD)的变化可能引起的经济影响对该地区的适应规划至关重要。根据耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP6)第 6 阶段发布的最新数据,研究了在化石燃料发展共享社会经济路径(SSP5-8.5)下,对 INCSC 地区未来极端降水量的偏差修正预测及其对 GDP 的影响。结果表明,在全球变暖的情况下,RX5day 将在整个 INCSC 地区强劲加剧,而 CDD 将在大多数地区延长。气候变化对 INCSC 地区 GDP 的影响始终占主导地位,而不是 GDP 的变化。如果仅考虑气候变化对 GDP 的影响,极端降水量的变化对华南的湖南、江西、福建、广东和海南等省以及印度支那的马来半岛和柬埔寨南部未来经济的影响更大。因此,这些地区迫切需要及时制定区域适应战略。此外,从次区域平均水平来看,超过三分之二的 CMIP6 模型一致认为,维持较低的全球变暖水平将减少 INCSC 地区强降水对经济的影响。
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Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina (INCSC) in recent decades. Given the areas with large gross domestic product (GDP) in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming, understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and the maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) is critical for adaptation planning in this region. Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) are investigated. Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region, while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming. The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region, rather than the change of GDP. If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP, the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan in South China, as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina. Thus, timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions. Moreover, from the sub-regional average viewpoint, over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

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来源期刊
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
5.20%
发文量
154
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, launched in 1984, aims to rapidly publish original scientific papers on the dynamics, physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean. It covers the latest achievements and developments in the atmospheric sciences, including marine meteorology and meteorology-associated geophysics, as well as the theoretical and practical aspects of these disciplines. Papers on weather systems, numerical weather prediction, climate dynamics and variability, satellite meteorology, remote sensing, air chemistry and the boundary layer, clouds and weather modification, can be found in the journal. Papers describing the application of new mathematics or new instruments are also collected here.
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