A Diagnostic Nomogram for Predicting Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Purpose: To develop and validate a nomogram for assessing the risk of developing hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF) in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).
Patients and Methods: From January 2019 to August 2023, a total of 334 AECOPD patients were enrolled in this research. We employed the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression to determine independent predictors and develop a nomogram. This nomogram was appraised by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (HL test), decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC). The enhanced bootstrap method was used for internal validation.
Results: Sex, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), hematocrit (HCT), and activities of daily living (ADL) were independent predictors of HRF in AECOPD patients. The developed nomogram based on the above predictors showed good performance. The AUCs for the training, internal, and external validation cohorts were 0.841, 0.884, and 0.852, respectively. The calibration curves and HL test showed excellent concordance. The DCA and CIC showed excellent clinical usefulness. Finally, a dynamic nomogram was developed (https://a18895635453.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/).
Conclusion: This nomogram based on sex, PNI, HCT, and ADL demonstrated high accuracy and clinical value in predicting HRF. It is a less expensive and more accessible approach to assess the risk of developing HRF in AECOPD patients, which is more suitable for primary hospitals, especially in developing countries with high COPD-related morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypercapnic respiratory failure, nomogram, prediction model