Minho Kim , Cecil Barnett-Neefs , Ruben A. Chavez , Erin Kealey , Martin Wiedmann , Matthew J Stasiewicz
{"title":"风险评估预测,生鸡部位的大部分沙门氏菌病风险都集中在沙门氏菌高致病性血清型含量较高的少数产品中。","authors":"Minho Kim , Cecil Barnett-Neefs , Ruben A. Chavez , Erin Kealey , Martin Wiedmann , Matthew J Stasiewicz","doi":"10.1016/j.jfp.2024.100304","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><em>Salmonella</em> prevalence declined in U.S. raw poultry products since adopting prevalence-based <em>Salmonella</em> performance standards, but human illnesses did not reduce proportionally. We used Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to evaluate public health risks of raw chicken parts contaminated with different levels of all <em>Salmonella</em> and specific high- and low-virulence serotypes. Lognormal <em>Salmonella</em> level distributions were fitted to 2012 USDA-FSIS Baseline parts survey and 2023 USDA-FSIS HACCP verification sampling data. Three different Dose-Response (DR) approaches included (i) a single DR for all serotypes, (ii) DR that reduces <em>Salmonella</em> Kentucky ST152 virulence, and (iii) multiple serotype-specific DR models. All scenarios found risk concentrated in the few products with high Salmonella levels. Using a single DR model with Baseline data (μ = −3.19, σ = 1.29 Log CFU/g), 68% and 37% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.7% and 0.06% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g <em>Salmonella</em>, respectively. Using distributions from 2023 HACCP data (μ = −5.53, σ = 2.45), 99.8% and 99.0% of illnesses were attributed to the 1.3% and 0.4% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g <em>Salmonella</em>, respectively. Scenarios with serotype-specific DR models showed more concentrated risk at higher levels. Baseline data showed 92% and 67% and HACCP data showed >99.99% and 99.96% of illnesses attributed to products with >1 and >10 CFU/g <em>Salmonella</em>, respectively. Regarding serotypes using Baseline or HACCP input data, 0.002% and 0.1% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.2% and 0.4% of products with >1 CFU/g of Kentucky ST152, respectively, while 69% and 83% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.3% and 0.6% of products with >1 CFU/g of Enteritidis, Infantis, or Typhimurium, respectively. Therefore, public health risk in chicken parts is concentrated in finished products with high levels and specifically high levels of high-virulence serotypes. Low-virulence serotypes like Kentucky contribute few human cases.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15903,"journal":{"name":"Journal of food protection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362028X24000887/pdfft?md5=af5e7b88d9c12dd53795507fba25c2d8&pid=1-s2.0-S0362028X24000887-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk Assessment Predicts Most of the Salmonellosis Risk in Raw Chicken Parts is Concentrated in Those Few Products with High Levels of High-Virulence Serotypes of Salmonella\",\"authors\":\"Minho Kim , Cecil Barnett-Neefs , Ruben A. Chavez , Erin Kealey , Martin Wiedmann , Matthew J Stasiewicz\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jfp.2024.100304\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p><em>Salmonella</em> prevalence declined in U.S. raw poultry products since adopting prevalence-based <em>Salmonella</em> performance standards, but human illnesses did not reduce proportionally. We used Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to evaluate public health risks of raw chicken parts contaminated with different levels of all <em>Salmonella</em> and specific high- and low-virulence serotypes. Lognormal <em>Salmonella</em> level distributions were fitted to 2012 USDA-FSIS Baseline parts survey and 2023 USDA-FSIS HACCP verification sampling data. Three different Dose-Response (DR) approaches included (i) a single DR for all serotypes, (ii) DR that reduces <em>Salmonella</em> Kentucky ST152 virulence, and (iii) multiple serotype-specific DR models. All scenarios found risk concentrated in the few products with high Salmonella levels. Using a single DR model with Baseline data (μ = −3.19, σ = 1.29 Log CFU/g), 68% and 37% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.7% and 0.06% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g <em>Salmonella</em>, respectively. Using distributions from 2023 HACCP data (μ = −5.53, σ = 2.45), 99.8% and 99.0% of illnesses were attributed to the 1.3% and 0.4% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g <em>Salmonella</em>, respectively. Scenarios with serotype-specific DR models showed more concentrated risk at higher levels. Baseline data showed 92% and 67% and HACCP data showed >99.99% and 99.96% of illnesses attributed to products with >1 and >10 CFU/g <em>Salmonella</em>, respectively. Regarding serotypes using Baseline or HACCP input data, 0.002% and 0.1% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.2% and 0.4% of products with >1 CFU/g of Kentucky ST152, respectively, while 69% and 83% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.3% and 0.6% of products with >1 CFU/g of Enteritidis, Infantis, or Typhimurium, respectively. Therefore, public health risk in chicken parts is concentrated in finished products with high levels and specifically high levels of high-virulence serotypes. Low-virulence serotypes like Kentucky contribute few human cases.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15903,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of food protection\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362028X24000887/pdfft?md5=af5e7b88d9c12dd53795507fba25c2d8&pid=1-s2.0-S0362028X24000887-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of food protection\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362028X24000887\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOTECHNOLOGY & APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of food protection","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362028X24000887","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BIOTECHNOLOGY & APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk Assessment Predicts Most of the Salmonellosis Risk in Raw Chicken Parts is Concentrated in Those Few Products with High Levels of High-Virulence Serotypes of Salmonella
Salmonella prevalence declined in U.S. raw poultry products since adopting prevalence-based Salmonella performance standards, but human illnesses did not reduce proportionally. We used Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to evaluate public health risks of raw chicken parts contaminated with different levels of all Salmonella and specific high- and low-virulence serotypes. Lognormal Salmonella level distributions were fitted to 2012 USDA-FSIS Baseline parts survey and 2023 USDA-FSIS HACCP verification sampling data. Three different Dose-Response (DR) approaches included (i) a single DR for all serotypes, (ii) DR that reduces Salmonella Kentucky ST152 virulence, and (iii) multiple serotype-specific DR models. All scenarios found risk concentrated in the few products with high Salmonella levels. Using a single DR model with Baseline data (μ = −3.19, σ = 1.29 Log CFU/g), 68% and 37% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.7% and 0.06% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g Salmonella, respectively. Using distributions from 2023 HACCP data (μ = −5.53, σ = 2.45), 99.8% and 99.0% of illnesses were attributed to the 1.3% and 0.4% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g Salmonella, respectively. Scenarios with serotype-specific DR models showed more concentrated risk at higher levels. Baseline data showed 92% and 67% and HACCP data showed >99.99% and 99.96% of illnesses attributed to products with >1 and >10 CFU/g Salmonella, respectively. Regarding serotypes using Baseline or HACCP input data, 0.002% and 0.1% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.2% and 0.4% of products with >1 CFU/g of Kentucky ST152, respectively, while 69% and 83% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.3% and 0.6% of products with >1 CFU/g of Enteritidis, Infantis, or Typhimurium, respectively. Therefore, public health risk in chicken parts is concentrated in finished products with high levels and specifically high levels of high-virulence serotypes. Low-virulence serotypes like Kentucky contribute few human cases.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Food Protection® (JFP) is an international, monthly scientific journal in the English language published by the International Association for Food Protection (IAFP). JFP publishes research and review articles on all aspects of food protection and safety. Major emphases of JFP are placed on studies dealing with:
Tracking, detecting (including traditional, molecular, and real-time), inactivating, and controlling food-related hazards, including microorganisms (including antibiotic resistance), microbial (mycotoxins, seafood toxins) and non-microbial toxins (heavy metals, pesticides, veterinary drug residues, migrants from food packaging, and processing contaminants), allergens and pests (insects, rodents) in human food, pet food and animal feed throughout the food chain;
Microbiological food quality and traditional/novel methods to assay microbiological food quality;
Prevention of food-related hazards and food spoilage through food preservatives and thermal/non-thermal processes, including process validation;
Food fermentations and food-related probiotics;
Safe food handling practices during pre-harvest, harvest, post-harvest, distribution and consumption, including food safety education for retailers, foodservice, and consumers;
Risk assessments for food-related hazards;
Economic impact of food-related hazards, foodborne illness, food loss, food spoilage, and adulterated foods;
Food fraud, food authentication, food defense, and foodborne disease outbreak investigations.