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引用次数: 0

摘要

金融危机对全球经济产生重大影响,导致经济衰退、失业率上升和其他负面后果。深刻理解金融危机的起源和发展机制对于增强经济体系的复原力十分必要。本文旨在从金融危机的周期化和成因的系统化两个方面对金融危机进行研究。研究采用了分析法、系统法、历史法等方法,对 20 世纪末至 21 世纪初这一过渡时期的金融危机进行了分析和分期;采用了比较法、类比法、系统法等方法,对金融危机的成因进行了归纳;采用了逻辑后果法,在研究的基础上得出了结论。文章探讨了金融危机在全球经济中的具体表现,并对其时期划分进行了总结。研究了全球金融危机的系统性决定因素。阐述了银行危机和货币危机的显著特征。考虑了基于 "传染效应 "的金融危机在一国的发展顺序。事实证明,金融危机并非随机事件,而是由各种因素造成的,包括投机操作、缺乏监管和监督以及过度借贷。地缘政治因素是近几十年来金融危机最常见的原因之一,本文对地缘政治因素及其具体表现给予了特别关注。研究认为,尽管金融危机具有周期性,但其规模和后果总是各不相同,因此有必要开发动态的危机管理工具。研究旨在确定导致金融危机的模式和因素。研究结果可作为开发预测金融危机可能性的指标体系的基础,以便及时采取预防措施,防止或减轻可能出现的负面影响。开发这样一个系统是一项复杂而全面的任务,具有进一步研究的前景。本文属于理论性文章。
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Anatomy of Financial Crises: Periodization and Causes
Financial crises have a significant impact on the global economy, leading to recessions, increased unemployment rates, and other negative consequences. Deep understanding of the mechanisms of origin and development of financial crises is necessary to enhance the resilience of economic systems. The aim of this article is to study financial crises in terms of their periodization and the systematization of their causes. The study employed methods such as analysis, systematization, and historical methodology to analyze and periodize financial crises during the transitional period from the late 20th century to the early 21st century; comparison, analogies, and systematization to generalize the causes of financial crises; and a logical-consequential method to draw conclusions based on the conducted research. The article explores the specific manifestations of financial crises in the global economy and summarizes their periodization. Systemic determinants of global financial crises are examined. The distinguishing features of banking and currency crises are characterized. The sequence of the development of financial crises in a state based on the "contagion effect" is considered. It is proven that financial crises are not random events; they are caused by various factors, including speculative operations, a lack of regulation and oversight, and excessive lending. Special attention is given to geopolitical factors as one of the most common causes of financial crises in recent decades and to their specific manifestations. It is established that, despite the cyclical nature of financial crises, their scales and consequences always vary, necessitating the development of dynamic tools for crisis management. The research aims to identify patterns and factors that cause financial crises. The results can serve as a basis for developing a system of indicators to predict the likelihood of financial crises, enabling timely preventive measures to prevent or mitigate possible negative consequences. Developing such a system is a complex and comprehensive task that presents prospects for further research. The type of article is theoretical.
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