Quantifying the Potential of Argon Detection Capabilities for Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

Current noble gas detection systems for nuclear explosion monitoring are based on the detection of four radioxenon isotopes—Xe-131m, -133, -133m and -135. The data provided by radioxenon detection could be enhanced by other radionuclide signatures such as Ar-37. Activation of Ca-40 in rock by neutrons produces Ar-37, and monitoring for this additional nuclide could help distinguish detections of nuclear explosions from background sources, such as medical isotope production. This work studies the capabilities of a hypothetical argon detection network. A 10 kt explosion was modeled using MCNP and SCALE to determine the inventory of Ar-37 created in a representative granite rock layer, assuming either 0.1, 1 or 10% of the total inventory was released. The Ar-37 inventory was combined with atmospheric transport data from HYSPLIT compiled in a previous study, along with the detection limits of standard Ar-37 detection systems, to determine how many hypothetical monitoring stations would detect Ar-37 from an explosion. This method was repeated for 365 HYSPLIT data sets to create a year’s worth of hypothetical explosions, releases, and detections. The study quantified the average number of detections per release, the number of stations detecting Ar-37, and the possibility of detecting Ar-37 in coincidence with xenon.