D. P. Armstrong, Z. L. Stone, E. H. Parlato, G. Ngametua, E. King, S. Gibson, S. Zieltjes, K. A. Parker
{"title":"将释放前和释放后的数据结合起来,同时考虑到扩散因素,以改进对重新引入种群的预测","authors":"D. P. Armstrong, Z. L. Stone, E. H. Parlato, G. Ngametua, E. King, S. Gibson, S. Zieltjes, K. A. Parker","doi":"10.1111/acv.12949","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Attempts to reintroduce species to managed areas may be compromised by dispersal into the surrounding landscape. Therefore, decisions regarding the selection and ongoing management of reintroduction areas require predicting dispersal as well as the survival and reproduction rates of the species to be reintroduced. Dispersal can potentially be measured directly by tracking animals, but this is often impractical. However, dispersal can also be inferred from re‐sighting surveys done within reintroduction areas if such data are available from multiple areas with varying connectivity to the surrounding landscape, allowing apparent survival and recruitment to be modelled as a function of connectivity metrics. Here, we show how data from 10 previous reintroductions of a New Zealand passerine, the toutouwai (<jats:italic>Petroica longipes</jats:italic>), were used to predict population dynamics at a predator‐controlled reintroduction area with high connectivity, and predictions then updated using post‐release data. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of the previous data produced prior distributions for productivity, adult survival and apparent juvenile survival rates that accounted for random variation among areas as well as rat density and connectivity. The modelling of apparent juvenile survival as a function of connectivity allowed it to be partitioned into estimates of survival and fidelity. Bayesian updating based on post‐release data produced posterior distributions for parameters that were consistent with the priors but much more precise. The prior data also allowed the recruitment rate estimated in the new area to be partitioned into separate estimates for productivity, juvenile survival and juvenile fidelity. Consequently, it was possible to not only estimate population growth under current management, but also predict the consequences of reducing the scale or intensity of predator control, facilitating adaptive management. The updated model could then be used to predict population growth as a function of the connectivity and predator control regime at proposed reintroduction areas while accounting for random variation among areas.","PeriodicalId":50786,"journal":{"name":"Animal Conservation","volume":"2014 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Combining prior and post‐release data while accounting for dispersal to improve predictions for reintroduction populations\",\"authors\":\"D. P. Armstrong, Z. L. Stone, E. H. Parlato, G. Ngametua, E. King, S. Gibson, S. Zieltjes, K. A. Parker\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/acv.12949\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Attempts to reintroduce species to managed areas may be compromised by dispersal into the surrounding landscape. Therefore, decisions regarding the selection and ongoing management of reintroduction areas require predicting dispersal as well as the survival and reproduction rates of the species to be reintroduced. Dispersal can potentially be measured directly by tracking animals, but this is often impractical. However, dispersal can also be inferred from re‐sighting surveys done within reintroduction areas if such data are available from multiple areas with varying connectivity to the surrounding landscape, allowing apparent survival and recruitment to be modelled as a function of connectivity metrics. Here, we show how data from 10 previous reintroductions of a New Zealand passerine, the toutouwai (<jats:italic>Petroica longipes</jats:italic>), were used to predict population dynamics at a predator‐controlled reintroduction area with high connectivity, and predictions then updated using post‐release data. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of the previous data produced prior distributions for productivity, adult survival and apparent juvenile survival rates that accounted for random variation among areas as well as rat density and connectivity. The modelling of apparent juvenile survival as a function of connectivity allowed it to be partitioned into estimates of survival and fidelity. Bayesian updating based on post‐release data produced posterior distributions for parameters that were consistent with the priors but much more precise. The prior data also allowed the recruitment rate estimated in the new area to be partitioned into separate estimates for productivity, juvenile survival and juvenile fidelity. Consequently, it was possible to not only estimate population growth under current management, but also predict the consequences of reducing the scale or intensity of predator control, facilitating adaptive management. The updated model could then be used to predict population growth as a function of the connectivity and predator control regime at proposed reintroduction areas while accounting for random variation among areas.\",\"PeriodicalId\":50786,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Animal Conservation\",\"volume\":\"2014 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Animal Conservation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12949\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Animal Conservation","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12949","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
Combining prior and post‐release data while accounting for dispersal to improve predictions for reintroduction populations
Attempts to reintroduce species to managed areas may be compromised by dispersal into the surrounding landscape. Therefore, decisions regarding the selection and ongoing management of reintroduction areas require predicting dispersal as well as the survival and reproduction rates of the species to be reintroduced. Dispersal can potentially be measured directly by tracking animals, but this is often impractical. However, dispersal can also be inferred from re‐sighting surveys done within reintroduction areas if such data are available from multiple areas with varying connectivity to the surrounding landscape, allowing apparent survival and recruitment to be modelled as a function of connectivity metrics. Here, we show how data from 10 previous reintroductions of a New Zealand passerine, the toutouwai (Petroica longipes), were used to predict population dynamics at a predator‐controlled reintroduction area with high connectivity, and predictions then updated using post‐release data. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of the previous data produced prior distributions for productivity, adult survival and apparent juvenile survival rates that accounted for random variation among areas as well as rat density and connectivity. The modelling of apparent juvenile survival as a function of connectivity allowed it to be partitioned into estimates of survival and fidelity. Bayesian updating based on post‐release data produced posterior distributions for parameters that were consistent with the priors but much more precise. The prior data also allowed the recruitment rate estimated in the new area to be partitioned into separate estimates for productivity, juvenile survival and juvenile fidelity. Consequently, it was possible to not only estimate population growth under current management, but also predict the consequences of reducing the scale or intensity of predator control, facilitating adaptive management. The updated model could then be used to predict population growth as a function of the connectivity and predator control regime at proposed reintroduction areas while accounting for random variation among areas.
期刊介绍:
Animal Conservation provides a forum for rapid publication of novel, peer-reviewed research into the conservation of animal species and their habitats. The focus is on rigorous quantitative studies of an empirical or theoretical nature, which may relate to populations, species or communities and their conservation. We encourage the submission of single-species papers that have clear broader implications for conservation of other species or systems. A central theme is to publish important new ideas of broad interest and with findings that advance the scientific basis of conservation. Subjects covered include population biology, epidemiology, evolutionary ecology, population genetics, biodiversity, biogeography, palaeobiology and conservation economics.