基于混合时间序列模型的中国大陆梅毒趋势分析与预测

IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI:10.1017/S0950268824000694
Zhen D Wang, Chun X Yang, Sheng K Zhang, Yong B Wang, Zhen Xu, Zi J Feng
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引用次数: 0

摘要

梅毒在中国大陆仍然是一个需要关注的严重公共卫生问题,建立模型来描述和预测梅毒的流行模式有助于政府制定更科学的干预措施。本文采用季节自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)模型、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型、混合SARIMA-LSTM模型和带外生输入的混合SARIMA-非线性自回归模型(SARIMA-NARX)分别模拟了2004年1月至2023年11月梅毒发病率的时间序列数据。与 SARIMA、LSTM 和 SARIMA-LSTM 模型相比,SARIMA-NARX 模型的中位绝对偏差(MAD)值分别减少了 352.69%、4.98% 和 3.73%。平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 值分别降低了 73.7%、23.46% 和 13.06%。均方根误差 (RMSE) 值分别降低了 68.02%、26.68% 和 23.78%。平均绝对误差(MAE)值分别降低了 70.90%、23.00% 和 21.80%。与基本的SARIMA和LSTM方法相比,混合SARIMA-NARX和SARIMA-LSTM方法能更准确地预测梅毒病例,因此可用于政府制定长期的梅毒防控计划。此外,预测的病例仍保持相当高的发病率,因此迫切需要制定更全面的预防策略。
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Analysis and forecasting of syphilis trends in mainland China based on hybrid time series models.

Syphilis remains a serious public health problem in mainland China that requires attention, modelling to describe and predict its prevalence patterns can help the government to develop more scientific interventions. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model, and hybrid SARIMA-nonlinear auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs (SARIMA-NARX) model were used to simulate the time series data of the syphilis incidence from January 2004 to November 2023 respectively. Compared to the SARIMA, LSTM, and SARIMA-LSTM models, the median absolute deviation (MAD) value of the SARIMA-NARX model decreases by 352.69%, 4.98%, and 3.73%, respectively. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value decreases by 73.7%, 23.46%, and 13.06%, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) value decreases by 68.02%, 26.68%, and 23.78%, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) value decreases by 70.90%, 23.00%, and 21.80%, respectively. The hybrid SARIMA-NARX and SARIMA-LSTM methods predict syphilis cases more accurately than the basic SARIMA and LSTM methods, so that can be used for governments to develop long-term syphilis prevention and control programs. In addition, the predicted cases still maintain a fairly high level of incidence, so there is an urgent need to develop more comprehensive prevention strategies.

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来源期刊
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
2.40%
发文量
366
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.
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