利用 INM-CM5 地球系统模式评估回顾性预报中海洋学场的再现性

IF 1.4 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI:10.3103/s1068373924030014

Yu. D. Resnyanskii, A. A. Zelen’ko, B. S. Strukov, V. N. Stepanov, V. M. Khan, V. V. Vorob’eva, M. A. Tarasevich, A. S. Gritsun, E. M. Volodin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要介绍了在应用 INM-CM5 气候模式进行几个月的长期预报时，对海洋场的再现性进行的技能评分。结果表明，模式预报与对照数据在绝对值上的差异主要是由于模式气候偏差造成的。在比较每种比较数据类型的单个常模计算的异常时，与对照数据的一致程度明显提高。特别是，对 3.4 尼诺现象区域的海温异常的预报，准备时间长达 6 个月，似乎相当成功。

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Assessment of the Reproducibility of Oceanographic Fields in Retrospective Forecasts Using the INM-CM5 Earth System Model

Abstract

Skill scores of the reproducibility of oceanographic fields in applying the INM-CM5 climate model to long-term forecasting for several months are presented. It is shown that disagreements between the model forecasts and the control data in terms of their absolute values are mainly due to the model climate bias. A degree of consistency with the control data significantly increases when comparing anomalies counted from the individual normals of each of the compared data types. In particular, the forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region with a lead time up to six months appear to be quite successful.

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来源期刊

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.