Establishment and validation of novel predictive models to predict bone metastasis in newly diagnosed prostate adenocarcinoma based on single-photon emission computed tomography radiomics

Purpose

To establish and validate novel predictive models for predicting bone metastasis (BM) in newly diagnosed prostate adenocarcinoma (PCa) via single-photon emission computed tomography radiomics.

Method

In a retrospective review of the clinical single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) database, 176 patients (training set: n = 140; validation set: n = 36) who underwent SPECT/CT imaging and were histologically confirmed to have newly diagnosed PCa from June 2016 to June 2022 were enrolled. Radiomic features were extracted from the region of interest (ROI) in a targeted lesion in each patient. Clinical features, including age, total prostate-specific antigen (t-PSA), and Gleason grades, were included. Statistical tests were then employed to eliminate irrelevant and redundant features. Finally, four types of optimized models were constructed for the prediction. Furthermore, fivefold cross-validation was applied to obtain sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the curve (AUC) for performance evaluation. The clinical usefulness of the multivariate models was estimated through decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

A radiomics signature consisting of 27 selected features which were obtained by radiomics' LASSO treatment was significantly correlated with bone status (P < 0.01 for both training and validation sets). Collectively, the models showed good predictive efficiency. The AUC values ranged from 0.87 to 0.98 in four models. The AUC values of the human experts were 0.655 and 0.872 in the training and validation groups, respectively. Most radiomic models showed better diagnostic accuracy than human experts in the training and validation groups. DCA also demonstrated the superiority of the radiomics models compared to human experts.

Conclusion

Radiomics models are superior to humans in differentiating between benign bone and prostate cancer bone metastases; it can be used to facilitate personalized prediction of BM in newly diagnosed PCa patients.