Pleistocene climate oscillations have shaped the expansion and contraction speciation model of the globose Eriosyce sect. Neoporteria cacti in Central Chile.

Background and aims: Pleistocene climatic oscillations, characterized by arid (interglacial) and pluvial (glacial) phases, have profoundly impacted the floras of Mediterranean climates. Our study investigates the hypothesis that these climatic extremes have promoted phases of range expansion and contraction in the Eriosyce sect. Neoporteria, resulting in pronounced genetic structuring and restricted gene flow.

Methods: Using nuclear microsatellite markers, we genotyped 251 individuals across 18 populations, encompassing all 14 species and one subspecies within the Eriosyce sect. Neoporteria. Additionally, species distribution models were used to reconstruct past (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene) and current potential distribution patterns, aiming to delineate the climatic influences on species range dynamics.

Key results: The gene flow analysis disclosed disparate levels of genetic interchange among species, with marked restrictions observed between entities that are geographically or ecologically separated. Notably, Eriosyce subgibbosa from Hualpen emerged as genetically distinct, warranting its exclusion for clearer genetic clustering into north, central and south clusters. The species distribution models corroborated these findings, showing marked range expansions during warmer periods and contractions during colder times, indicating significant shifts in distribution patterns in response to climatic changes.

Conclusions: Our findings emphasize the critical role of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in driving the dynamic patterns of range expansions and contractions that have led to geographical isolation and speciation within the Eriosyce sect. Neoporteria. Even in the face of ongoing gene flow, these climate-driven processes have played a pivotal role in sculpting the genetic architecture and diversity of species. This study elucidates the complex interplay between climatic variability and evolutionary dynamics among mediterranean cacti in central Chile, highlighting the necessity of considering historical climatic millennial oscillations in conservation and evolutionary biology studies.