Impact assessment of climate change on water resources in the upstream of a Tunisian RAMSAR heritage site (Ichkeul Lake) using HEC-HMS model

Climate change is one of the most important global challenges of this century, with significant impacts on water resources, economic development and ecological health. This study aimed to investigate the effect of climate change on streamflow in Joumine watershed, upstream the Ichkeul Lake, a RAMSAR wetland and the most productive ecosystems in Tunisia and the Mediterranean. The hydrologic response of the basin was simulated based on Hydrologic Modelling System HEC-HMS. Climate data were generated from the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the Irish Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the periods 2030–2060 and 2061–2100. The statistical analysis showed that model performance is satisfactory, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 and 0.64 for calibration and validation, respectively. The climate projections exhibited a declining trend in precipitation during the two future periods with more frequent extreme rainfall events in dry season and a rise in temperature which is more accentuated during the period 2061–2100. Climate change is expected to have profound impacts on water resources and resilience of ecosystems. Results showed that Joumine basin is projected to experience reduction in streamflow which is more pronounced under RCP8.5. The frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes are expected to be intensified, notably during the far future period, leading to pressure on water availability in the end of the twenty-first century. Hence, sustainable water resources management is needed to close the water demand and supply gap in the Joumine river basin.