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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment associated with induced seismicity at geothermal sites in the Upper Rhine Graben (Southern Germany) 上莱茵地堑(德国南部)地热场诱发地震活动的概率地震危险性评估
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01499-w
Aida Azari Sisi, Manuel Hobiger, Thomas Spies, Andreas Steinberg

The extraction of geothermal energy is associated with induced seismicity. Depending on the extraction parameters, such as injection pressure and volume, the induced seismicity is time-dependent. We investigate the case of the two geothermal power plants of Insheim and Landau, which are located in the Upper Rhine Graben in Southwest Germany. The induced seismicity was observed by a local seismic network consisting of a total of 19 stations, resulting in an earthquake catalog comprising 930 events for the Landau reservoir and 1985 events for the Insheim reservoir, both between 2012 and 2022. Based on this earthquake catalog, seismic source areas are defined for both reservoirs, and a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is performed. Using temporal subsets of the earthquake catalog, PSHA can also be performed for shorter time ranges, resulting in larger expected PGV values in times of higher induced seismicity. The seismic velocity profiles obtained by site effect studies based on ambient seismic noise measurements highlight relatively large variations of the site effects on short scales in the area. The consequences of these lateral variations on the seismic hazard assessment are also discussed.

地热能的开采与诱发地震活动有关。根据注入压力和体积等提取参数的不同,诱发地震活动具有时间依赖性。我们调查了位于德国西南部上莱茵地槽的因斯海姆和兰道两个地热发电厂的案例。由19个台站组成的当地地震台网观测了诱发地震活动,得出了一份地震目录,其中包括2012年至2022年间Landau水库的930次地震事件和Insheim水库的1985次地震事件。在此基础上,确定了两个水库的震源区域,并进行了概率地震危险性评估(PSHA)。利用地震目录的时间子集,PSHA也可以在较短的时间范围内进行,从而在较高的诱发地震活动性时期产生较大的预期PGV值。基于环境地震噪声测量的场地效应研究得到的地震速度剖面突出了该地区在短尺度上场地效应的较大变化。文中还讨论了这些横向变化对地震危险性评价的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing flood disaster management: leveraging deep learning and remote sensing technologies 推进洪水灾害管理:利用深度学习和遥感技术
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-12-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01481-6
Mohammad Roohi, Hamid Reza Ghafouri, Seyed Mohammad Ashrafi

Floods are among the most widespread and devastating natural disasters, accounting for 47% of all weather-related events and affecting over 2.3 billion people, particularly in Asia. Assessing flood-prone areas is crucial for effective disaster risk reduction, but existing flood damage estimation methods, such as depth-damage functions, often lack regional adaptability and accuracy. This study addresses this gap by integrating geospatial data, remote sensing, and artificial intelligence (AI) to identify flood-affected areas in the Kan basin, Tehran. We applied deep learning methods, specifically U-Net and fully convolutional neural network (FCN) algorithms, to optical and radar images from four flood events. Our results demonstrate that the U-Net model achieves significantly higher accuracy (88%) in identifying flood-affected areas compared to the FCN model (55% accuracy). This superior performance is further supported by the mean intersection over union (mIoU) values, with U-Net achieving 0.65, compared to 0.55 for FCN. The key message of this investigation is that deep learning, particularly the U-Net model, applied to remote sensing data holds significant promise for enhancing flood monitoring, early warning systems, and disaster management strategies by enabling more accurate and timely flood assessments.

洪水是最广泛和最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,占所有天气相关事件的47%,影响超过23亿人,特别是在亚洲。评估洪水易发地区对于有效降低灾害风险至关重要,但现有的洪水损失估计方法,如深度损害函数,往往缺乏区域适应性和准确性。本研究通过整合地理空间数据、遥感和人工智能(AI)来确定德黑兰Kan盆地的受洪水影响地区,从而解决了这一差距。我们将深度学习方法,特别是U-Net和全卷积神经网络(FCN)算法应用于四次洪水事件的光学和雷达图像。我们的研究结果表明,与FCN模型(55%的准确率)相比,U-Net模型在识别受洪水影响的地区方面达到了显着更高的准确率(88%)。这种优越的性能进一步得到了平均交联(mIoU)值的支持,U-Net达到0.65,而FCN为0.55。这项研究的关键信息是,深度学习,特别是U-Net模型,应用于遥感数据,通过实现更准确和及时的洪水评估,为加强洪水监测、预警系统和灾害管理策略带来了巨大的希望。
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引用次数: 0
Radiological hazard assessment due to natural radioactivity content in cement material used in Iraqi Kurdistan region 伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区水泥材料天然放射性含量的辐射危害评估
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01480-7
Hiwa Mohammad Qadr

An investigation was conducted to determine radon concentrations, radon exhalation rate, and potential radiological hazard parameters associated with cement collected from five factories in Sulaymaniyah city, Kurdistan region, Iraq. Using solid-state nuclear track detectors such as CR39, the samples were analyzed by etching processes. The average radon concentration, radium concentration, and radon exhalation rate were 138.16 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 3}), 0.254 ({text{Bq}},{text{kg}}^{ - 1}), and 0.317 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 2} ,{text{h}}^{ - 1}), respectively. In sample 14, radon concentrations were within the suggested range of 200–600 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 3}), and the radon exhalation rate was well below the global average of 57.600 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 2} ,{text{h}}^{ - 1}). In addition, parameters related to potential radiological hazards were calculated for cement samples, the average annual effective dose indoor and outdoor were 3.49 and 1.31 ({text{mSv}},{text{y}}^{ - 1}), so this study's value was within the global average limitations (1–5 ({text{mSv}},{text{y}}^{ - 1})). Also, the excess lifetime cancer risk indoor and outdoor were 12.5 × 10−3 and 4.69 × 10−3 greater than the world value of 0.29 × 10−3.

进行了一项调查,以确定从伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区苏莱曼尼亚市5家工厂收集的水泥的氡浓度、氡排放率和潜在辐射危害参数。利用固体核径迹探测器(如CR39)对样品进行蚀刻分析。平均氡浓度为138.16 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 3}),镭浓度为0.254 ({text{Bq}},{text{kg}}^{ - 1}),氡呼出率为0.317 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 2} ,{text{h}}^{ - 1})。在样品14中,氡浓度在建议的200-600 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 3})范围内,氡呼出率远低于全球平均值57.600 ({text{Bq}},{text{m}}^{ - 2} ,{text{h}}^{ - 1})。此外,对水泥样品进行了潜在辐射危害相关参数计算,室内和室外年平均有效剂量分别为3.49和1.31 ({text{mSv}},{text{y}}^{ - 1}),因此本研究的值在全球平均限制范围内(1-5 ({text{mSv}},{text{y}}^{ - 1}))。室内和室外的终生癌症风险分别比世界平均值(0.29 × 10−3)高出12.5 × 10−3和4.69 × 10−3。
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引用次数: 0
New intensity prediction equation in Western China considering site equivalent shear wave velocity 考虑场地等效横波速度的西部地震烈度预测新方程
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01458-5
Jiawei Gao, Ke Du

Intensity prediction equations (IPEs) are critical for quickly obtaining the macroscopic intensity of a site post-earthquake, with regional dependencies influencing their design. Historically, most IPEs in China have focused primarily on the factors of distance and magnitude. This study develops site-specific IPEs for Western China, using data from 53 seismic events since 1970, to address the previously overlooked importance of site conditions and overcome the limitations of past models. The data were categorized into three site groups, with IPEs derived through multiple nonlinear regression methods. Our findings reveal that macroscopic intensities at category III and IV sites are notably higher than those at categories I and II, with this disparity increasing alongside the magnitude. Unlike conventional IPEs, the IPEs proposed in this paper incorporate local geological and seismological characteristics, enhancing prediction accuracy across varied site conditions. This methodology distinctly contrasts with prior approaches by providing a nuanced assessment that integrates comprehensive site categorization, resulting in more precise intensity predictions. This advancement is particularly crucial for effective emergency management and disaster mitigation strategies in seismically active regions.

强度预测方程(IPEs)是快速获得场地震后宏观强度的关键,区域依赖性影响其设计。从历史上看,中国的大多数IPEs主要关注距离和震级因素。本研究利用1970年以来53次地震事件的数据,为中国西部地区开发了特定地点的IPEs,以解决以前被忽视的地点条件的重要性,并克服过去模型的局限性。将数据分为3个站点组,并通过多元非线性回归方法获得IPEs。研究结果表明,三级和四级站点的宏观强度明显高于一级和二级站点,且这种差异随着震级的增大而增大。与传统的IPEs不同,本文提出的IPEs结合了当地的地质和地震特征,提高了不同场地条件下的预测精度。这种方法与先前的方法形成鲜明对比,它提供了一种细致入微的评估,整合了全面的站点分类,从而产生更精确的强度预测。这一进展对于地震活跃地区有效的应急管理和减灾战略尤为重要。
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引用次数: 0
High levels of terrestrial gamma radiation exposure in the Kopili Fault Zone on the eastern wedge of the Shillong Plateau, India 印度西隆高原东楔的Kopili断裂带的高水平地面伽马辐射暴露
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01459-4
Pranjal Protim Gogoi, Sarat Phukan, Debajyoti Barooah

This study addresses the substantial terrestrial gamma radiation exposure and associated radiological risk in the Amsoi region, located in the seismically active Kopili Fault Zone (KFZ) on the periphery of Shillong Plateau’s gneissic complex. A portable monitoring device highly sensitive to gamma radiation, equipped with a NaI (Tl) scintillator, was used to quantify the terrestrial gamma dose rates in indoor and outdoor air. The recorded dose rates varied among house patterns, with mud houses having the highest. The calculated absorbed dose rates indoors and outdoors were found to be in the range of 157.9–362.5 nGy h−1 and 163.7–336.2 nGy h−1, respectively, which are much higher than the reported population-weighted global averages of 84 nGy h−1 and 59 nGy h−1. The indoor-to-outdoor ratio was also calculated and found to be in the range of 0.7–1.4. The elevated terrestrial gamma radiation could be attributed to the geological setting of the study area, located in the seismically active KFZ. The annual effective dose equivalents for indoor and outdoor environments were calculated and found to be in the ranges of 0.8–1.8 mSv and 0.2–0.4 mSv, respectively. The excess lifetime cancer risk was assessed by calculating the lifetime effective dose and was found to be in the range of 3.4 × 10–3–7.3 × 10–3, which is considerably higher than the global average of 1.45 × 10–3. This study has revealed that the populations residing in this seismically active fault zone are living precariously under high terrestrial gamma radiation.

本研究研究了位于西隆高原片麻岩杂岩外围地震活跃的Kopili断裂带(KFZ)的Amsoi地区大量的地面伽马辐射暴露和相关的辐射风险。采用配备NaI (Tl)闪烁体的便携式伽玛辐射高灵敏度监测装置,对室内和室外空气中的地面伽玛剂量率进行了量化。记录的剂量率因房屋类型而异,泥屋的剂量率最高。室内和室外计算的吸收剂量率分别为157.9-362.5 nGy h - 1和163.7-336.2 nGy h - 1,远高于报告的84 nGy h - 1和59 nGy h - 1的人口加权全球平均水平。室内外比值也在0.7-1.4之间进行了计算。地面伽马辐射的升高可能与研究区位于地震活跃的KFZ的地质环境有关。计算了室内和室外环境的年有效剂量当量,分别为0.8-1.8毫西弗和0.2-0.4毫西弗。通过计算终生有效剂量评估了过量终生癌症风险,发现其范围为3.4 × 10-3 - 7.3 × 10-3,远高于全球平均水平1.45 × 10-3。该研究表明,居住在地震活跃断裂带的人口生活在高地面伽马辐射下。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of strong motion record baseline drift based on Bayesian-optimized Transformer network 基于贝叶斯优化变压器网络的强运动记录基线漂移识别
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01460-x
Baofeng Zhou, Yue Yin, Maofa Wang, Runjie Zhang, Yue Zhang, Wenheng Guo

Research in earthquake engineering heavily relies on strong motion observation. The quality of strong motion records directly affects the reliability of earthquake disaster prevention, rapid reporting of seismic magnitude, earthquake early warning, and other areas. Currently, basic mathematical methods, such as zero-line adjustment and filtering, are commonly employed to ensure the quality of strong motion records. However, these methods often rely on subjective judgment based on human experience when dealing with abnormal waveforms in strong motion records, leading to relatively low efficiency. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an innovative Transformer model based on Bayesian optimization to efficiently identify baseline drift anomalies in strong motion records. By partitioning the strong motion record data from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, China, into two categories: high-quality records (with minimal baseline drift) and low-quality records (with significant baseline drift), we extracted data with distinct features and inputted them into the proposed model for training. Data with distinct features were extracted and input into the proposed model for training. Finally, the model was used to predict whether strong motion records exhibited baseline drift abnormalities. The experimental results show that the optimized Transformer model achieves a performance exceeding 85% in key evaluation metrics such as accuracy and F1 scores. It is capable of efficiently identifying a substantial volume of strong motion records with baseline drift within a short period of time. The model effectively performs the baseline drift classification task for strong motion records and can be used for subsequent identification of abnormalities after baseline drift correction, enabling automation in handling abnormal data related to baseline drift.

地震工程研究在很大程度上依赖于强震观测。强震记录的质量直接影响到地震防灾、震级快速上报、地震预警等领域的可靠性。目前,为了保证强运动记录的质量,通常采用基本的数学方法,如零线调整和滤波。然而,这些方法在处理强运动记录中的异常波形时,往往依赖于基于人类经验的主观判断,导致效率相对较低。为了解决这一挑战,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯优化的创新Transformer模型,以有效识别强运动记录中的基线漂移异常。通过将1999年中国台湾集集地震强震记录数据划分为高质量记录(基线漂移最小)和低质量记录(基线漂移显著)两类,我们提取了具有不同特征的数据,并将其输入到所提出的模型中进行训练。提取具有不同特征的数据并输入到所提出的模型中进行训练。最后,该模型用于预测强运动记录是否显示基线漂移异常。实验结果表明,优化后的Transformer模型在准确率和F1分数等关键评价指标上的性能优于85%。它能够在短时间内有效地识别大量具有基线漂移的强运动记录。该模型有效地完成了强运动记录的基线漂移分类任务,并可用于基线漂移校正后的后续异常识别,实现了基线漂移相关异常数据的自动化处理。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial commentary 编辑评论
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01455-8
Michal Malinowski
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引用次数: 0
Comment on “Analysis of extreme rainfall trend and mapping of the Wadi pluvial flood in the Gaza coastal plain of Palestine” 关于 "巴勒斯坦加沙沿海平原瓦迪冲积洪水极端降雨趋势分析与绘图 "的评论
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01446-9
Nathaniel Bergman, Joel Roskin, Noam Greenbaum, Ofer Sholker, Udi Galilee

The article by Al-Najjar et al. (2022a) possesses abundant flaws in geopolitical, geographical and hydrological contexts. The paper ignores a vast body of scientific literature about the study region of the Negev Desert, Israel, in general, and Nahal Besor (Wadi Gaza) in particular. The paper’s methodology lacks data collection from the field. These gaps and flaws lead to erroneous and geopolitically slandered research conclusions. Nahal Besor is a large transboundary ephemeral river shared between Israel, the West Bank (Palestinian and Israeli territories) in the northeast, and finally, its western outlet into the Mediterranean Sea is in the Gaza Strip. Despite the current political ordeal between the two nations to accurately portray and model the segment of the river in the downstream coastal plain of Gaza, it is crucial to use the data of upstream Israeli floods that in some events reach the Strip. In this comment, we utilize some of the main flaws of Al-Najjar et al. (2022a) to demonstrate that how the hypothesized potential flood geohazard of Gaza can be significantly reduced by binational and regional cooperation such as using upbasin bank-side reservoirs in the northwestern Negev, Israel.

Al-Najjar 等人(2022a)的文章在地缘政治、地理和水文方面存在大量缺陷。该文忽略了有关以色列内盖夫沙漠研究区域的大量科学文献,尤其是有关 Nahal Besor(加沙谷)的文献。论文的研究方法缺乏实地数据收集。这些空白和缺陷导致了错误的、带有地缘政治色彩的研究结论。Nahal Besor 是一条大型跨界短时河流,由以色列、约旦河西岸(巴勒斯坦和以色列领土)东北部共享,最后,其西部出口位于加沙地带,注入地中海。尽管目前两国之间的政治斗争对准确描绘和模拟加沙下游沿海平原的河段十分不利,但使用上游以色列洪水的数据至关重要,在某些情况下,这些数据会到达加沙地带。在本评论中,我们利用 Al-Najjar 等人(2022a)的一些主要缺陷来证明,如何通过两国和区域合作(如利用以色列内盖夫西北部的上游河岸水库)来显著减少加沙潜在的假设洪水地质灾害。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of deep foundation pit excavation on surrounding environment: a case study in Nanjing, China 深基坑开挖对周边环境的影响——以南京市为例
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01425-0
Chenhe Ge, Meng Yang, Pengfei Li, Mingju Zhang

During the construction of deep and large foundation pits in floodplain areas, it is inevitable to cause stratum disturbance and endanger the safety of the surrounding environment. This paper focuses on the influence of deep foundation pit excavation on surrounding environment based on a soft soil deep foundation pit project in Nanjing floodplain area. A series of laboratory tests were conducted to obtain the parameters of the small strain hardening (HSS) model for the typical soil layers. Then PLAXIS 3D software is used to simulate the excavation process of the foundation pit. On the basis of field measurement and numerical model, the deformation characteristics of deep foundation pit and surrounding environment are analyzed. The HSS model and the appropriate model parameters can effectively simulate the deformation behavior during the excavation of the foundation pit. Aiming at the problem of excessive deformation of foundation pit and surrounding pipelines, the reinforcement effect of reinforced soil in active and passive areas under different reinforcement parameters is analyzed. The optimal reinforcement width and depth should be determined after reasonable analysis to obtain the best economic benefits.

在洪泛平原地区进行深基坑施工时,不可避免地会造成地层扰动,危及周边环境的安全。本文以南京河漫区某软土深基坑工程为例,重点研究了深基坑开挖对周边环境的影响。为获得典型土层的小应变硬化模型参数,进行了一系列室内试验。然后利用PLAXIS三维软件对基坑开挖过程进行模拟。在现场实测和数值模拟的基础上,分析了深基坑及其周围环境的变形特征。HSS模型和适当的模型参数可以有效地模拟基坑开挖过程中的变形行为。针对基坑及周边管线变形过大的问题,分析了不同加固参数下主动区和被动区加筋土的加固效果。合理分析后确定最优配筋宽度和深度,以获得最佳经济效益。
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引用次数: 0
Lightning activity and its connection with weather-related parameters over Sri Lanka 斯里兰卡上空的闪电活动及其与天气相关参数的联系
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-024-01442-z
Nandivada Umakanth, Annur Vivekananda Chandrasekhar, Akkarapakam Sujala Swapna Smitha, Bhavani Vasantha, Karuturi Srinivasa Rao, Ravindranadh Koutavarapu, Myla Chimpiri Rao

This study analyzed lightning activity along Sri Lanka using lightning imaging sensor for a 17-year period (1998–2014). To understand the influence of various parameters on the lightning activity, we investigated various meteorological parameters such as convective precipitation, relative humidity, cloud top temperature, cloud base height, convective available potential energy, total precipitable water, rain dynamic index, humidity index, convection inhibition, lifted index, K-index, total totals index, show alter index, vertical velocity and dew point depression (Dpd). North-western, Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa regions of Sri Lanka showed high lightning activity. The analysis revealed different seasonal variations in lightning activity. The pre-monsoon season showed the maximum frequency, while winter witnessed the least. In addition, wind patterns embedded with moisture seem to influence regional variations over Srilanka. The westerly winds might influence lightning activity over Srilanka. We investigated the variations of different meteorological parameters for 40 lightning and no lightning days during the study period. During lightning days, the VV values show negative values with strong lightning and convection potential and strong atmospheric updrafts. Higher atmospheric levels have been found to contain dry air, and lower atmospheric levels have been found to contain moist air on lightning days. Extremely unstable atmospheric conditions that favour intense lightning activity were indicated by LI values less than −4.

本研究利用闪电成像传感器分析了斯里兰卡 17 年间(1998-2014 年)的闪电活动。为了了解各种参数对闪电活动的影响,我们研究了各种气象参数,如对流降水、相对湿度、云顶温度、云基高度、对流可用势能、可降水总量、雨动力指数、湿度指数、对流抑制、抬升指数、K 指数、总总量指数、显示改变指数、垂直速度和露点低压(Dpd)。斯里兰卡西北部、西部、南部和萨巴拉加穆瓦地区的闪电活动频繁。分析显示,闪电活动存在不同的季节性变化。季风前的季节雷电活动最为频繁,而冬季则最少。此外,蕴含水汽的风型似乎也影响着斯里兰卡的区域变化。西风可能会影响斯里兰卡的闪电活动。我们研究了研究期间 40 个闪电日和无闪电日的不同气象参数的变化。在闪电日期间,VV 值为负值,闪电和对流潜力强,大气上升气流强。在雷电日,较高的大气层含有干燥空气,较低的大气层含有潮湿空气。LI值小于-4表示大气条件极不稳定,有利于强烈的闪电活动。
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引用次数: 0
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