Mapping Groundwater Potential Zones with GIS-RS-AHP Under Climate Change: Case of Mostaganem Plateau, Northwest Algeria

In arid regions with increasing water needs due to growing populations and agriculture, heightened by climate change, groundwater arises as a crucial asset. This research evaluated climate change influence on groundwater potential zones (GPZs) during 2000 and 2014, within the Mostaganem plateau’s alluvial aquifer in Algeria, using a methodology that integrates analytical hierarchy process (AHP), remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). Forecasts for 2030 and 2050 were conducted using the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. Findings reveal a (30.29%) decrease in zones of moderate potential, the vanishing of high potential sectors, alongside a (7.53%) and a (22.1%) rise in fair potential and low potential, respectively, from 2000 to 2014. Between 2014 and 2030, fair and moderate potential decrease by 6.62% and 0.48%, while low potential zones see a 7.47% increase. These shifts are linked to changes in rainfall distribution, and land use land cover (LULC), notably intensive agriculture of herbaceous crops. Slight changes are anticipated between 2030 and 2050, possibly due to the onset of a resilience equilibrium from 2030 onwards. These findings are crucial as a preliminary investigation, highlighting the necessity of optimal groundwater management.