Modeling terminal Pleistocene and Holocene forager population increase and environmental change in the Central Namib desert, Namibia

This paper examines the interplay of environmental change and human demographic shifts among late Pleistocene and Holocene populations in the hyper-arid context of the Central Namib Gravel plains, Western Namibia. This paper applies a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach to arid-zone hunter-gatherer mobility patterns and settlement systems based on variability among ethnographically and historically observed groups. It then applies this model in examining issues related to the Middle-to-Later Stone Age transition at the sites of Erb Tanks and the Mirabib rock shelter. This model suggests that, among modern arid-zone foragers, population density is by far the strongest factor influencing mobility and settlement systems, with higher population densities favoring longer residential site usages and shorter residential moves within smaller territories. In contrast, environmental variables having to do with annual rainfall, rainfall seasonality, and effective temperature affect mobility and settlement systems in ambiguous and statistically insignificant ways. This paper closes by arguing that regional-scale population increases signaled by various features of Later Stone Age archaeological patterning led to local population expansions in the Central Namib Desert, and that this in turn caused a range of recognizable cultural shifts that were strongly linked with adaptations to aridity.