Saikat Mondal, Rudra P. Pradhan, Vinodh Madhavan, Debaleena Chatterjee, Ann Mary Varghese
{"title":"碳排放定价：欧盟排放交易计划现货价格与未来价格之间的联系以及欧盟排放交易计划市场的完整性","authors":"Saikat Mondal, Rudra P. Pradhan, Vinodh Madhavan, Debaleena Chatterjee, Ann Mary Varghese","doi":"10.1177/09726527241248003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The study examines the relationship and linkages between spot and future prices of European Union Emission Trading Systems (EU-ETS) during 2019–2021. Dynamic conditional correlation specification of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model was employed to examine the time-varying correlation between spot and future prices. Also, vector autoregression mean model and MGARCH-Baba-Engle-Kroner-Kraft volatility model was jointly estimated to model the spillover between EU ETS spot and future prices in the first and second moments. Lastly, we utilize the variance-covariance matrix of joint mean-variance model estimation to derive the optimal conditional hedge ratio as well as the hedge effectiveness of EU ETS future contracts. Our findings reveal a high conditional correlation and significant spillover between carbon spot and future markets in EU. Further, our study uncovers a high degree of hedge effectiveness for EU ETS future contracts. This is possibly the first study that examines the linkages between EU ETS spot and future prices pertaining to the recent transition stage of phase III and the initial stage of ongoing phase IV of the ETS market. Our findings pinpoint to ETS markets becoming more complete and in turn offering optimal hedging avenues.JEL Codes: G15, C58, Q38","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Carbon Emissions Pricing: Linkages Between EU ETS Spot and Future Prices and Completeness of EU ETS Market\",\"authors\":\"Saikat Mondal, Rudra P. Pradhan, Vinodh Madhavan, Debaleena Chatterjee, Ann Mary Varghese\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/09726527241248003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The study examines the relationship and linkages between spot and future prices of European Union Emission Trading Systems (EU-ETS) during 2019–2021. Dynamic conditional correlation specification of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model was employed to examine the time-varying correlation between spot and future prices. Also, vector autoregression mean model and MGARCH-Baba-Engle-Kroner-Kraft volatility model was jointly estimated to model the spillover between EU ETS spot and future prices in the first and second moments. Lastly, we utilize the variance-covariance matrix of joint mean-variance model estimation to derive the optimal conditional hedge ratio as well as the hedge effectiveness of EU ETS future contracts. Our findings reveal a high conditional correlation and significant spillover between carbon spot and future markets in EU. Further, our study uncovers a high degree of hedge effectiveness for EU ETS future contracts. This is possibly the first study that examines the linkages between EU ETS spot and future prices pertaining to the recent transition stage of phase III and the initial stage of ongoing phase IV of the ETS market. Our findings pinpoint to ETS markets becoming more complete and in turn offering optimal hedging avenues.JEL Codes: G15, C58, Q38\",\"PeriodicalId\":44100,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Emerging Market Finance\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Emerging Market Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527241248003\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527241248003","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Carbon Emissions Pricing: Linkages Between EU ETS Spot and Future Prices and Completeness of EU ETS Market
The study examines the relationship and linkages between spot and future prices of European Union Emission Trading Systems (EU-ETS) during 2019–2021. Dynamic conditional correlation specification of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model was employed to examine the time-varying correlation between spot and future prices. Also, vector autoregression mean model and MGARCH-Baba-Engle-Kroner-Kraft volatility model was jointly estimated to model the spillover between EU ETS spot and future prices in the first and second moments. Lastly, we utilize the variance-covariance matrix of joint mean-variance model estimation to derive the optimal conditional hedge ratio as well as the hedge effectiveness of EU ETS future contracts. Our findings reveal a high conditional correlation and significant spillover between carbon spot and future markets in EU. Further, our study uncovers a high degree of hedge effectiveness for EU ETS future contracts. This is possibly the first study that examines the linkages between EU ETS spot and future prices pertaining to the recent transition stage of phase III and the initial stage of ongoing phase IV of the ETS market. Our findings pinpoint to ETS markets becoming more complete and in turn offering optimal hedging avenues.JEL Codes: G15, C58, Q38
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Emerging Market Finance is a forum for debate and discussion on the theory and practice of finance in emerging markets. While the emphasis is on articles that are of practical significance, the journal also covers theoretical and conceptual aspects relating to emerging financial markets. Peer-reviewed, the journal is equally useful to practitioners and to banking and investment companies as to scholars.
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