Survival analysis of adult visceral leishmaniasis patients admitted to Metema Hospital, Metema, Ethiopia: a hospital-based cross-sectional study.

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that mostly affects the working class and impoverished segments of society, having a significant negative effect on the economic development of the affected nation. While anti-leishmanial medications lower mortality among VL patients, patients may still die or require more time to recover while receiving treatment. In this regard, there are limited studies in Ethiopia. This study aims to determine the time to recovery and its associated predictors among adult VL patients at Metema Hospital, Metema, Ethiopia.

Methods: A hospital-based cross-sectional study was employed and the data were collected from patient's charts from September 2017 to September 2021. Data were entered and analysed using EpiData version 3.1, Stata version 14.2 and R version 3.4.0 statistical software. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and logrank tests were used to compare the survival time. The Cox proportional hazards model assumption and model fitness were checked and used to identify statistical association predictors in VL patients.

Results: The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted. The overall medium recovery time was 7 d (minimum 4, maximum 14). The variables of nasal bleeding (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.44 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.19 to 0.89]), no comorbidity (aHR 2.29 [95% CI 1.27 to 4.11]), relapse of VL (aHR 0.33 [95% CI 0.15 to 0.75]), low parasite load (aHR 2.58 [95% CI 1.48 to 4.51]) and ambulatory (aHR 3.26 [95% CI 2.45 to 6.53]) were significantly associated with time to recovery in VL patients.

Conclusions: Patients with comorbidities, nasal bleeding, relapse of VL, bedridden and high parasite load should be treated and monitored carefully to recover quickly from their illness.