战时外部融资对战时国家经济的影响

Tetiana Davydiuk, Kateryna Shymanska
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摘要

本研究根据 2006 年至 2021 年期间因类似军事冲突而受伤的五个国家的数据,深入探讨了外部资金支持(官方发展援助和外国直接投资)对经济活动和福利的影响。研究以乌克兰为重点,为政策制定者在战时引导外部融资提出了建议。就业率、人均国内生产总值、通货膨胀率和出口是我们分析的基础。研究方法采用回归分析法来衡量战时外部融资对这些冲突频发国家的经济影响。研究结果表明,战时外国直接投资的增加与就业率下降、人均国内生产总值提高和出口增加相关。此外,还发现官方发展援助对就业有负面影响,对出口有积极影响,但对人均国内生产总值没有显著影响。在统计上,官方发展援助对通货膨胀率没有重大影响。
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The impact of external financing during wartime on the economy of a country in war
This study delves into the effects of external financial support (official development assistance and foreign direct investments) on economic activity and welfare based on data from five nations injured by similar military conflicts from 2006 to 2021. Focusing on Ukraine, the research recommends ways for policymakers to navigate external financing during wartime. The employment rate, GDP per capita, inflation rate, and exports are the foundations for our analysis. The methodological approach employed regression analysis to measure the economic effect of external financing in wartime in these conflict-ridden nations. The findings reveal that increased foreign direct investment during wartime correlates with reduced employment rates, heightened GDP per capita, and increased exports. In addition, the negative impact of official development assistance  ODA on employment was found, and it had a positive effect on exports but no significant effects on GDP per capita. A statistically significant impact on the inflation rate was not seen.
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