山洪管理回顾:从水文模型到危机管理

IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI:10.1111/jfr3.12999
Salma Sadkou, Guillaume Artigue, Noémie Fréalle, Pierre-Alain Ayral, Séverin Pistre, Sophie Sauvagnargues, Anne Johannet
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在气候变化的背景下,山洪暴发的频率预计会增加。考虑到其破坏性影响,首要任务是保护受灾人口和基础设施。这是危机管理者的责任,但由于这些事件发生迅速,他们面临着重重困难。本研究的重点是确定水文学家与危机管理者之间的联系程度。研究还旨在确定在山洪暴发期间将预报有效纳入危机管理的限制因素和促进因素。为此,在选定的平台上对现有文献进行了广泛的方法研究。所遇到的模型具有多个层面的特点,包括物理、地理和危机管理层面。研究结果表明,由于建模方法的复杂性、对所提模型操作性影响的预测不足以及财务方面的限制因素,相关双方之间的联系有限。另一方面,承认山洪威胁和进行成本效益分析被认为是促进因素。这项研究表明,应重新考虑所采用的预测方法,特别是机器学习的整合,以及最终用户在危机管理背景下对这些应用的需求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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A review of flash-floods management: From hydrological modeling to crisis management

In a context of climate change, flash-floods are expected to increase in frequency. Considering their devastating impacts, it is primordial to safeguard the exposed population and infrastructure. This is the responsibility of crisis managers but they face difficulties due to the rapidity of these events. The focus of this study was to characterize the extent of the link between hydrologists and crisis managers. It also aimed to determine the limiting and the fostering factors to an effective integration of forecasting in crisis management during flash-floods. This was achieved through an extensive and methodological study of available literature in selected platforms. The models encountered were characterized on multiple levels including the physical, geographical and crisis management level. The results revealed a limited link between the two involved parties with limiting factors such as the complexity of the modeling approach, the insufficient projection in the implications of operationality of the models proposed and the financial aspect. On the other hand, acknowledging the threat of flash-floods and conducting cost–benefit-analysis were pinpointed as fostering factors. This study showed to reconsider the forecasting methods employed, particularly, the integration of machine learning, and the needs of end-user in these applications in a crisis management context.

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来源期刊
Journal of Flood Risk Management
Journal of Flood Risk Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-WATER RESOURCES
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
7.30%
发文量
93
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Flood Risk Management provides an international platform for knowledge sharing in all areas related to flood risk. Its explicit aim is to disseminate ideas across the range of disciplines where flood related research is carried out and it provides content ranging from leading edge academic papers to applied content with the practitioner in mind. Readers and authors come from a wide background and include hydrologists, meteorologists, geographers, geomorphologists, conservationists, civil engineers, social scientists, policy makers, insurers and practitioners. They share an interest in managing the complex interactions between the many skills and disciplines that underpin the management of flood risk across the world.
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