Understanding the effects of a long-term transit service suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic on transit users’ travel choices

Substantial funding is allocated towards building new transit infrastructure worldwide. Such large undertakings can disrupt the system and result in the suspension of some of the provided transit services. While there is a considerable number of studies that focused on understanding people’s mode choices during normal operations and short-term disruptions, little has been done to investigate travel choices during long-term disruptive periods. This paper aims at examining changes in travel choices during a long-term disruption that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in Montréal. Using two waves of surveys, it explores the impacts of the suspension of the Deux-Montagnes train line due to the construction of a new light rail system, the Réseau express métropolitain (REM), on the travel choices of users that previously used the train line. Associations between respondents’ travel choices and socioeconomics, users’ perceptions, and spatial factors were examined, while exploring the difference between users’ anticipated travel choices reported before the suspension and their actual choices during the suspension. The results show that only around one-third of the Deux-Montagnes line’s previous users continued to use transit, while many shifted to using cars to reach the same destinations. Nevertheless, a higher percentage of users who live within an 800-metre buffer from a closed station used alternative transit options during the closure than using cars. Respondents who relied on using cars were the least likely to report that they will use the REM service in the future. The study highlights the overlooked impacts of long-term service closures.