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引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究从传染病的角度研究了比特币的价格走势。作者将 COVID-19 大流行病的爆发与比特币价格爆炸进行了比较，并采用了 SIR 流行病学模型。SIR 模型将人群分为易感人群（S）、感染人群（I）和清除人群（R）。就比特币而言，打开的钱包代表易感人群，感染从单个个体开始。在进行了四次估算试验后，使用比特币价格下跌趋势得出的恢复率和上涨趋势得出的感染率的模型准确率最高。估算结果与比特币价格爆炸的偏差仅为三天。以往的研究通常使用快于指数增长或静态检验来识别泡沫的形成。本文介绍了一种采用流行病学模型分析比特币爆炸性价格行为的新方法。
Do infectious diseases explain Bitcoin price Fluctuations?
This study examines Bitcoin price movements from an infectious disease perspective. The author compares the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic with the Bitcoin price explosion and adopts the SIR epidemiological model. The SIR model operates by categorizing the population of individuals into susceptible (S), infected (I), and removed (R). In the case of Bitcoin, open wallets represent the susceptible population, and the infection starts with a single individual. After conducting four estimation trials, the model that uses the recovery rate derived from the Bitcoin price downtrend and the infection rate from the upward trend has the highest accuracy. The estimation deviates from the Bitcoin price explosions by only three days. Previous studies commonly use faster-than-exponential growth or stationarity tests to identify bubble formations. This paper introduces a novel approach that employs epidemiological models to analyze Bitcoin’s explosive price behavior.
期刊介绍：
International trade, financing and investments, and the related cash and credit transactions, have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years. The international monetary system has continued to evolve to accommodate the need for foreign-currency denominated transactions and in the process has provided opportunities for its ongoing observation and study. The purpose of the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the international aspects of financial markets, institutions and money. Theoretical/conceptual and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • International financial markets • International securities markets • Foreign exchange markets • Eurocurrency markets • International syndications • Term structures of Eurocurrency rates • Determination of exchange rates • Information, speculation and parity • Forward rates and swaps • International payment mechanisms • International commercial banking; • International investment banking • Central bank intervention • International monetary systems • Balance of payments.
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